How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20% but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Sedgefield 04/09/25
#6 Too Cool Forshrule (Form: 88115-)
Efficient 2m3f chase profile with winning form prior to a break; model flags NP>IP and a strong sectional kick in a compact field.
4:53 Sedgefield – Fairlight Studios At Sedgefield Racecourse Mares’ Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 4) (2m3f188y, 6 runners, Good)
#2 Herja (Form: 43-22F)
Short market leader on consistent placed form but current quotes overstate chance; strong rider and track suit yet valuation is below fair.
#3 Kottayam (Form: 243F)
Traveled well before a late spill last time and the setup should enhance his efficiency; NP above IP puts him in the sweet spot for value.
#4 Voodoo Angel (Form: /69-24)
Promising recent return and stays this trip well; trainer/jockey combo suggests a solid placing chance at a workable price.
Analysis
Herja the most likely on raw form; Kottayam offers the value edge; Voodoo Angel a sound place play.
5:28 Sedgefield – Canine Premier Flex Plus Joint Supplement Novices’ Handicap Chase (0–100) (Class 5) (2m5f28y, 8 runners, Good)
#3 Ivane (Form: 123-32)
Consistent chaser with solid jumping and stamina; trades short of fair but still ranks most likely winner on balance.
#6 Couldbeaweapon (Form: -73242)
Upward profile with competitive figures and a good rhythm at this trip; sits near fair and fits the preferred NP band.
#5 Rory’s Story (Form: -32413)
Recent win backed up by solid placing; mark still feasible and trip looks optimal for another bold show.
Analysis
Ivane most likely on form; Couldbeaweapon pressurises late; Rory’s Story stays for a podium.
6:00 Sedgefield – D&J Yates Memorial – Never Forgotten Handicap Hurdle (0–120) (Class 4) (3m3f9y, 8 runners, Good)
#5 Hostile Hotelier (Form: 62-3F4)
Relentless stayer with figures pointing to improvement at this extended trip; model upgrades with NP comfortably above IP.
#6 Spitalfield (Form: 74-223)
Consistent placer with stout stamina; marginally short of fair but remains a strong win contender in a thin top tier.
#4 Paddy De Pole (Form: 332-5P)
Forgive the latest blip; earlier runs stack up and yard efficiency suggests a rebound with a test of stamina.
Analysis
Hostile Hotelier appeals at the prices; Spitalfield remains a danger; Paddy De Pole best of the rest.
6:30 Sedgefield – MW Groundworks & Civils Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (0–110) (Class 4) (2m3f65y, 6 runners, Good)
#6 Too Cool Forshrule (Form: 88115-)
Two wins before the break and returns to an efficient trip; NP>IP marks a clear value signal with tactical pace to deploy.
#5 Limerick Leader (Form: P-2122)
Reliable and often in the first two but price is compressed versus fair; still rates the main threat on consistency.
#4 Delpotro (Form: P32-1P)
Capable at the level and the ground/trip combo suits; fair price to nick a placing if jumping holds.
Analysis
Too Cool Forshrule the bet; Limerick Leader the danger; Delpotro value for the minor money.
7:00 Sedgefield – Fairlight Studios Handicap Hurdle (0–115) (Class 4) (2m3f188y, 10 runners, Good)
#7 The Navigator (Form: -546P1)
Course-savvy and back in form; tactical speed for this trip with a slight value edge on normalized figures.
#5 Spot On Soph (Form: 9-3224)
Rock-solid at the grade and well positioned on marks; profiles to travel and finish off strongly at value quotes.
#4 Mr Le Philosophe (Form: 232117)
Progressive before a recent dip; retains upside at this trip and remains a key player for the places.
Analysis
The Navigator narrow preference; Spot On Soph the value; Mr Le Philosophe solid for the frame.
7:30 Sedgefield – Honky Tonks Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race) (Class 5) (2m178y, 2 runners, Good)
#2 Frammy (Form: 42)
Most likely on raw chance in a match but trades shy of fair; tactical speed and stable record still point to top spot.
#1 Fairlawn Skipper (Form: 3-1)
Carries a penalty but experience and pace control could make this a grind; near-fair and a live alternative.
Analysis
Frammy still the A-side; Fairlawn Skipper not far behind and is near-fair in a tactical affair.
Notes
Overround colour guide: 100%–115% 116%–117% 118%+ ≤99%
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair