Bet Smart & Win — Sedgefield Race Preview
Thursday 06 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Fern O’Brien
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Drops from C4; trip/ground suit; reliable jumper. Above Fair edge.
Details
- J: Jack Power
- T: Adam Nicol
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Ideal setup; strong stayer; solid jumper. Fair value EW.
Details
- J: Tom Midgley
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Trip/ground fine; stays; dependable jumper. Fair value.
Details
- J: Nathan Moscrop
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Unbeaten in bumpers incl. C&D; strong AF edge.
Details
- J: Derek Fox
- T: Alison Thorpe
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Seasoned; stays on; reliable jumper. Fair value.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Chris Grant
- Trip: 2m 178y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Switch to hurdles may help; watching brief. Below Fair.
Details
- J: Paddy Hanlon
- T: Jennie Candlish
- Trip: 2m 5f 28y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
C&D fall when clear; strong SecEff-J; AF at weights.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Micky Hammond
- Trip: 2m 5f 28y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Strong stayer; late gains profile; AF value EW.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: Lizzie Quinlan
- Trip: 2m 5f 28y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
C&D winner; workable mark; AF contender.
Details
- J: Freddie Keighley
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 2m 3f 188y
- Trainer RTF%: 61%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Stratford winner; longer trip ideal; AF and clear standard.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Nicky Richards
- Trip: 2m 3f 188y
- Trainer RTF%: 82%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Stays well; yard flying; F value behind fav.
Details
- J: Beau Morgan
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m 3f 188y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Interesting TT; more to prove; F value.
Details
- J: Jonathan England
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 2m 3f 65y
- Trainer RTF%: 64%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Point winner; chase debut; AF value to strike.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m 3f 65y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Best form in book; PU LTO a worry; F if bouncing back.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: Ben Pauling
- Trip: 2m 3f 65y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Proven chaser; consistent SecEff-J; AF contender.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: Adam Nicol
- Trip: 2m 5f 34y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Close second LTO; up in trip a plus; AF and well-weighted.
Details
- J: Tom Broughton
- T: Fergal O’Brien
- Trip: 2m 5f 34y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Worcester trip win; stamina key; AF danger.
Details
- J: William Shanahan
- T: Jennie Candlish
- Trip: 2m 5f 34y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Up in trip the question; AF if staying; EW terms apply.
Details
- J: David Bass
- T: Henry Daly
- Trip: 2m 5f 34y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Stratford maiden winner; trip looks ideal; AF edge.
Details
- J: Sean Quinlan
- T: Seamus Mullins
- Trip: 2m 5f 34y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent; longer trip may unlock win; AF EW.
Details
- J: Danny McMenamin
- T: Chris Grant
- Trip: 2m 5f 34y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Trip unknown but workable mark; AF at a price.
Analysis
In-form; step up in trip ideal; strong SecEff-J; NP>IP AF edge. Back with confidence.