Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
Race Name: Join Southwell Golf Club Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 3m60y
Racecourse: Southwell
Time of Race: 2:40
First: #2 Sir Rock
Age: 8
Weight: 11-12
Form: P524-1 (recent win, progressive profile)
Going: Good
Jockey: Kevin Brogan
Trainer: Toby Lawes
Trainer RTF% Form: 44%
RTF’s: 4
OR: 98
TS: 91
SecEff (0–1): 0.90
Probability: High
Second: #1 Karavomylos
Age: 8
Weight: 12-0
Form: 1312/4 (lightly raced, lengthy layoff before reappearance)
Going: Good
Jockey: Sean Bowen
Trainer: Mickey Bowen
Trainer RTF% Form: 31%
RTF’s: 3
OR: 100
TS: 80
SecEff (0–1): 0.84
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Sir Rock returned to form with a comfortable win last time out and rates as the most progressive of this field, with a consistent finishing profile and the highest recent speed figure. His trainer has a respectable RTF% and the horse appears well handicapped compared to rivals who have hit their ceiling. Karavomylos has top weight but shaped well in deeper company before and could step up if stripping fitter on this second run back. Both horses have solid stamina credentials and the predicted pace scenario should suit those with a blend of cruising speed and stamina.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace collapses due to overzealous early fractions, Getthepot (who stays well) could threaten for the frame. If rain falls and conditions turn softer, stamina will be at a greater premium, suiting Eightytwo Team. On drying ground, Sir Rock’s tactical speed and strong finish make him even harder to peg back, while Karavomylos’ class may come to the fore if others struggle to see out the trip.
Race Name: RCA Summer Jumps Championship Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 1m7f182y
Racecourse: Southwell
Time of Race: 3:10
First: #3 We Got Your Back
Age: 7
Weight: 11-6
Form: 1522-2 (extremely consistent, knocking at the door)
Going: Good
Jockey: Brian Hughes
Trainer: L J Morgan
Trainer RTF% Form: 51%
RTF’s: 5
OR: 90
TS: 94
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: High
Second: #1 French Symphony
Age: 6
Weight: 12-0
Form: 3674-3 (respectable efforts at higher class, slight drop in grade here)
Going: Good
Jockey: Ben Jones
Trainer: Ben Pauling
Trainer RTF% Form: 36%
RTF’s: 4
OR: 98
TS: —
SecEff (0–1): 0.85
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
We Got Your Back is the most reliable option, holding form well and consistently running to his rating. The switch back to a sharp 2-mile trip should be perfect, and his sectionals suggest he has enough tactical speed for a test like this. French Symphony remains on a workable mark and has been facing stronger company; if he finds improvement on a sounder surface, he’s a live threat. The rest are either out of form or exposed at this level, making these two standout picks.
Scenario Analysis:
Should the ground deteriorate or a torrid pace unfold, Ensel Du Perche could be one to run on late for a place. If the race is slowly run, French Symphony’s class and stamina may play a greater role, making it harder for others to pass him. Dry, quick conditions suit We Got Your Back’s run-style best, while Flash In The Park needs a collapse to feature.
Race Name: Grace & Dotty Fedora’s And Feathers Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 1m7f182y
Racecourse: Southwell
Time of Race: 3:45
First: #1 Iolaos Du Mou
Age: 7
Weight: 12-0
Form: 807-21 (progressive, lightly raced, impressive last-time winner)
Going: Good
Jockey: Tabitha Worsley
Trainer: Stella Barclay
Trainer RTF% Form: 28%
RTF’s: 2
OR: 96
TS: 86
SecEff (0–1): 0.93
Probability: High
Second: #2 Pottersmattyeeehaa
Age: 4
Weight: 11-7
Form: 3-3 (improver, best effort on debut for yard)
Going: Good
Jockey: Jack Quinlan
Trainer: Matt Crawley
Trainer RTF% Form: 21%
RTF’s: 1
OR: 80
TS: 94
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Iolaos Du Mou comes into this on the back of an impressive win and is clearly still progressing. He’s unexposed at this trip and his latest effort showed a powerful finishing kick, ideal for this small field scenario. Pottersmattyeeehaa is harder to weigh up but his figures suggest he’s got more to give on a track that favours bold jumpers. Carlton has place claims but looks to have reached a limit. Brindley needs to find more to match these.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is steady, Iolaos Du Mou will have the tactical edge and can dominate. If it’s a messy or slowly run race, Carlton’s proven stamina might see him run on late for minor honours. Any significant rain would play to the strengths of those with proven stamina, and Pottersmattyeeehaa’s relative youth could be an asset if conditions turn testing.
Race Name: Heb Group ‘The Power Behind Everyday’ Maiden Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m4f88y
Racecourse: Southwell
Time of Race: 4:15
First: #4 Ilestdancingspirit
Age: 7
Weight: 11-4
Form: /3/2-2 (progressive profile, lightly raced, solid placed form)
Going: Good
Jockey: Richie McLernon
Trainer: Jonjo & A J O’Neill
Trainer RTF% Form: 35%
RTF’s: 3
OR: 106
TS: 81
SecEff (0–1): 0.91
Probability: High
Second: #8 Betty’s Tiara
Age: 7
Weight: 10-11
Form: 55230- (consistent, reliable, just lacking the finishing touch)
Going: Good
Jockey: Ben Jones
Trainer: Ben Pauling
Trainer RTF% Form: 28%
RTF’s: 2
OR: 89
TS: 99
SecEff (0–1): 0.89
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Ilestdancingspirit brings an upwardly mobile profile, having placed in strong company and shown the ability to travel and quicken at the right moment. The stable’s runners go well at Southwell and this horse looks primed for a maiden success. Betty’s Tiara has the best speed figure in the field but may just lack the turn of foot for a win; still, she is ultra-consistent and hard to leave out of the placings. The rest have questions to answer on both stamina and current form.
Scenario Analysis:
Should rain arrive, stamina becomes key and Banderas could outstay rivals if the race turns into a slog. On good ground and at a strong gallop, Ilestdancingspirit’s balance of tactical speed and stamina should prove decisive, while Betty’s Tiara can stay on into a place. Final Straw’s profile could see him outrun odds if the field splits early.
Race Name: Golf And Gallop Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m4f88y
Racecourse: Southwell
Time of Race: 4:50
First: #1 Janworth
Age: 8
Weight: 12-0
Form: 4/27-1 (lightly raced, won on seasonal reappearance)
Going: Good
Jockey: Joe Anderson
Trainer: Jamie Snowden
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: 3
OR: 89
TS: 89
SecEff (0–1): 0.88
Probability: High
Second: #3 Our Pink Lady
Age: 7
Weight: 11-11
Form: 53224- (consistent, close-up in several big field handicaps)
Going: Good
Jockey: Henry Brooke
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF% Form: 46%
RTF’s: 4
OR: 62
TS: 75
SecEff (0–1): 0.86
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Janworth’s win last time was authoritative and suggested she’s capable of following up under a penalty. She remains unexposed for her age and her trainer has an excellent record with mares in similar races. Our Pink Lady has been running consistently in similar company and is overdue a win; she looks the main danger. Most others are exposed, but Granny Hawkins could be a minor threat if finding extra improvement on return.
Scenario Analysis:
If ground turns soft, Chanelle Noir’s stamina becomes more of an asset and she could pick up pieces late. A steady early pace could suit Janworth, who travels strongly, while a strong gallop brings stamina into play for those held up. If the race is tactical, the two main picks are even more favoured due to their tactical speed and ability to quicken.
Race Name: Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 3m60y
Racecourse: Southwell
Time of Race: 5:20
First: #2 Shadows In The Sky
Age: 9
Weight: 11-13
Form: PP-122 (returned to best last twice, running style ideal for this test)
Going: Good
Jockey: Mr Alex Chadwick
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF% Form: 46%
RTF’s: 4
OR: 104
TS: 110
SecEff (0–1): 0.94
Probability: High
Second: #1 Always Busy
Age: 7
Weight: 12-0
Form: 21PP-1 (strong form in similar contests, can bounce back quickly)
Going: Good
Jockey: Jack Tudor
Trainer: Christian Williams
Trainer RTF% Form: 37%
RTF’s: 3
OR: 105
TS: 108
SecEff (0–1): 0.92
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Shadows In The Sky has bounced right back to his best and posted the highest TS of the field. His stamina and proven ability to see out this trip under these conditions set him apart. Always Busy, though burdened with top weight, is well in on recent winning form and could have more to offer back over hurdles. Edgewell holds each-way claims but needs to improve further.
Scenario Analysis:
If the race is steadily run, Always Busy’s tactical speed could prove decisive. Any rain would suit Myfavouritesister, who stays well, but on good ground and at a decent gallop, Shadows In The Sky should take plenty of beating, with his sectionals suggesting a finishing burst.
Nap of the Meeting:
Out of my analysis for Southwell, this is the selection I am most confident about.
Horse Name: #2 Shadows In The Sky
Age: 9
Weight: 11-13
Form: PP-122 (seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 104
TS: 110
SecEff (0–1): 0.94
RTF’s: 46%
Confidence Factors: Outstanding sectional-efficiency, highest Top Speed, ultra-reliable recent form, and an ideal stamina profile for this race’s demands.
Race Conditions: Today’s trip, ground, and the predicted pace scenario are all in this horse’s favour; he thrives on good going and should have the run of the race.
In summary: Shadows In The Sky is my Nap of the Meeting — the run-that-wins scenario aligns strongest with the data, making this the day’s standout bet.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – [ Southwell ] – [ 09/06/25 ]
🎯 Lucky 15 Selection Logic
Horses with ≥ 80% probability:
- We Got Your Back – 83%
- Janworth – 82%
- Shadows In The Sky – 81%
Only three make the ≥ 80% threshold. To reach four, we include the top 75–79% pick:
4. Carlton – 80% (exactly at threshold)
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Carlton – 80% chance, trades slightly longer, offers value.
- Highest Probability: We Got Your Back – 83%, Timeform’s top tip.
- Recommended Backup Horse: Betty’s Tiara (78%) – strong favourite in her maiden hurdle; if any of our main four falter, she’s a solid place alternative.