Bet Smart & Win — Southwell Race Preview
Wed 15/10/25 • 8 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 56
- Odds: 3.85
Analysis
Clear standout on recent form; NP comfortably exceeds IP and setup suits from a favourable class position.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Jack Jones
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 75
- Odds: 10.00
Analysis
Solid each-way value with consistent figures; positive jockey booking enhances claims.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 57
- Odds: 9.09
Analysis
Competitive handicapper; AF differential and stable form suggest place claims.
Details
- J: Harry Davies
- T: Hugo Palmer
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 38
- Odds: 2.70
Analysis
Sets the standard after two good seconds; progressive profile with clear NP edge.
Details
- J: Robert Havlin
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 60
- Odds: 4.76
Analysis
Experience plus top yard; AF differential keeps him firmly in the mix.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 7f 14y
- Trainer RTF%: 60
- Odds: 8.33
Analysis
Lightly raced and from a strong stable; AF gap suggests improvement can put him in the frame.
Details
- J: P J McDonald
- T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 6f 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 41
- Odds: 2.94
Analysis
Upward trajectory; expected to progress past exposed rivals with clear AF advantage.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: Ollie Sangster
- Trip: 6f 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 36
- Odds: 5.00
Analysis
Solid form base; AF gap indicates competitiveness to the line.
Details
- J: Clifford Lee
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 6f 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 67
- Odds: 4.17
Analysis
Battle-hardened; AF edge but may find one too progressive.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m 13y
- Trainer RTF%: 68
- Odds: 4.76
Analysis
Arrives in form; AF profile and whitelist jockey point to a leading chance.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: Saeed bin Suroor
- Trip: 1m 13y
- Trainer RTF%: 100
- Odds: 6.67
Analysis
Consistent and well-placed; AF gap supports solid win/place prospects.
Details
- J: Benoit De La Sayette
- T: Oliver Cole
- Trip: 1m 13y
- Trainer RTF%: 89
- Odds: 7.14
Analysis
Solid claims; AF differential keeps her competitive in a deep heat.
Details
- J: Josephine Gordon
- T: Tom Tate
- Trip: 1m 13y
- Trainer RTF%: 100
- Odds: 5.00
Analysis
Recent battling win signals peak; AF gap backs up follow-up claims.
Details
- J: Mark Winn
- T: Roger Fell
- Trip: 1m 13y
- Trainer RTF%: 29
- Odds: 4.35
Analysis
Ultra-consistent; AF advantage and suitable trip keep him very competitive.
Details
- J: Cieren Fallon
- T: Joseph Parr
- Trip: 1m 13y
- Trainer RTF%: 20
- Odds: 5.88
Analysis
C&D credentials; AF profile and whitelist jockey add confidence.
Details
- J: Billy Garritty
- T: Michael & David Easterby
- Trip: 6f 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 50
- Odds: 5.26
Analysis
Thriving; AF profile supports win claims in this field.
Details
- J: Dylan Hogan
- T: Jack Jones
- Trip: 6f 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 75
- Odds: 7.14
Analysis
In good heart; AF gap makes him a solid alternative.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Marco Botti
- Trip: 6f 16y
- Trainer RTF%: 27
- Odds: 9.09
Analysis
Consistent; AF spread keeps her right in the place picture.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Charlie Fellowes
- Trip: 1m 6f 21y
- Trainer RTF%: 53
- Odds: 3.85
Analysis
Lightly raced stayer with clear NP edge; strong win claims.
Details
- J: Dylan Hogan
- T: Rae Guest
- Trip: 1m 6f 21y
- Trainer RTF%: 57
- Odds: 5.26
Analysis
Reliable type; AF differential and stamina angles fit the task.
Details
- J: George Downing
- T: Seamus Mullins
- Trip: 1m 6f 21y
- Trainer RTF%: 75
- Odds: 10.00
Analysis
Yard in form; AF edge offers a live each-way play.
Details
- J: Dylan Hogan
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 1m 3f 23y
- Trainer RTF%: 13
- Odds: 7.69
Analysis
Recent second reads well; AF spread points to another big run.
Details
- J: Cam Hardie
- T: Ollie Pears
- Trip: 1m 3f 23y
- Trainer RTF%: 33
- Odds: 9.09
Analysis
Consistent and reliable; AF gap keeps him in the frame late.
Details
- J: Ben Robinson
- T: Brian Ellison
- Trip: 1m 3f 23y
- Trainer RTF%: 53
- Odds: 11.11
Analysis
Capable of grabbing a place; AF spread supports value angle.
Analysis
Strong recent form, trainer running well, and NP>IP within an ideal overround. Rated our most reliable “run-that-wins” scenario at Southwell.