Bet Smart & Win — Southwell Race Preview
Thursday 23 October 2025 • 9 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, our models break down each bookmaker’s Overround to reveal the True Fair Market Value. We focus on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Sam Feilden
- T: Bryan Smart
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 7.69 (≈ 13/2)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Value pick: NP > IP with a favourable pace set-up.
Details
- J: Tom Kiely-Marshall
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: 4.55 (≈ 7/2)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Clear market leader and form pick; solid baseline chance.
Details
- J: Rhys Elliott
- T: Michael Dods
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 9.09 (≈ 8/1)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Favourable pace map; solid each-way profile.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 5.26 (≈ 9/2)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Proven form; holds a clear value edge on NP vs IP.
Details
- J: Jamie Spencer
- T: Ollie Sangster
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: 4.35 (≈ 10/3)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Well-touted newcomer; market signals demand respect.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: 14.29 (≈ 14/1)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Significant each-way value with NP well above IP.
Details
- J: Stevie Donohoe
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: 4.35 (≈ 10/3)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Strong favourite on figures; best value profile among market leaders.
Details
- J: Ashley Lewis
- T: Stuart Williams
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: 6.67 (≈ 11/2)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent; fits ideal criteria and offers fair value.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: James Tate
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: 8.33 (≈ 7/1)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Unexposed; fair value with top pilot booked.
Details
- J: Jamie Spencer
- T: David Simcock
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: 3.33 (≈ 5/2)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Model standout; meets all key criteria and sets the form standard.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Owen Burrows
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: 5.88 (≈ 10/3)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Primary danger; solid profile and progressive.
Details
- J: Josephine Gordon
- T: Keiran Burke
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: 9.09 (≈ 8/1)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Reliable; holds fair each-way claims.
Details
- J: Josephine Gordon
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: 5.0 (≈ 4/1)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Unexposed; value alternative to the market leader.
Details
- J: Harry Davies
- T: Charlie Fellowes
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 7.69 (≈ 13/2)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Consistent profile; meets fair-value criteria.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: 8.33 (≈ 7/1)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Well-bred; market support would be notable.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 7.14 (≈ 6/1)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Attractively weighted; best value profile in the division.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: 5.26 (≈ 9/2)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
In form; marginal below-fair at quoted IP.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Jane Chapple-Hyam
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: 7.69 (≈ 13/2)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Solid contender with conditions to suit.
Details
- J: Neil Callan
- T: Robert Cowell
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: 5.56 (≈ 9/2)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Value selection in an open race; profile fits well.
Details
- J: Jamie Spencer
- T: Ollie Sangster
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: 10.0 (≈ 9/1)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Low-mileage filly; strong C&D claims.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Charles Hills
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 53%
- Odds: 9.09 (≈ 8/1)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent; fair each-way chance.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: S Woods
- Trip: 2m102y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: 4.17 (≈ 10/3)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Previous C&D winner; above-fair value against the favourite.
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: Henrietta C Knight
- Trip: 2m102y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: 3.45 (≈ 5/2)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Form horse but a shade below-fair at the current IP.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 2m102y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: 7.69 (≈ 13/2)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
In excellent form; completes the shortlist.
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Harry Charlton
- Trip: 1m3f23y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: 5.0 (≈ 4/1)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Consistent; deserves a win and represents fair value.
Details
- J: Rowan Scott
- T: Kevin Philippart De Foy
- Trip: 1m3f23y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: 12.5 (≈ 11/1)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Live each-way contender with a clear value edge.
Details
- J: Joe Leavy
- T: Jonathan Portman
- Trip: 1m3f23y
- Trainer RTF%: 39%
- Odds: 12.5 (≈ 11/1)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Another with solid claims; open race lends each-way appeal.
Analysis
Strong form credentials; meets class/field/value criteria. “Run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model.