Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Grace & Dotty Fedora’s And Feathers Handicap
Race Distance: 7f14y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 3:15
First: Drifts Away
Age: 4
Weight: 9-2
Form: 6-3111 (Consistent performances)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Tom Marquand
Trainer: T J Kent
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 73
TS: 71
Probability: First Horse High
Second: King Of Ithaca
Age: 5
Weight: 9-5
Form: 12-315 (Consistent performances)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: James Tate
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 76
TS: 83
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Drifts Away has shown exceptional recent form with three consecutive wins, indicating strong momentum. King Of Ithaca is consistent but may lack the finishing speed on this surface.
Scenario Analysis: If the track becomes slower, King Of Ithaca’s stamina could come into play, but Drifts Away’s speed should prevail under standard conditions.
Race Name: Weekend Winners On Sky Sports Racing Handicap
Race Distance: 4f214y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 3:45
First: Tourist
Age: 4
Weight: 9-10
Form: 1251-1 (Consistent performances)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Sean Levey
Trainer: Robert Cowell
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: –
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Ziggy’s Missile
Age: 4
Weight: 9-8
Form: 25-641 (Consistent performances)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Tom Marquand
Trainer: Robert Cowell
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 84
TS: 85
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Tourist is a proven performer with a high OR and strong recent form. Ziggy’s Missile has speed but may struggle to match Tourist’s class.
Scenario Analysis: If the race becomes tactical, Ziggy’s Missile could exploit any early pace errors, but Tourist’s consistency should secure victory.
Race Name: British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 1m4f14y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 4:15
First: Overture
Age: 4
Weight: 10-0
Form: 31111- (Consistent performances)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Luke Morris
Trainer: Sir Mark Prescott Bt
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 88
TS: 58
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Russian Crescendo
Age: 4
Weight: 9-10
Form: 411- (Consistent performances)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Tom Marquand
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 62%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 84
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Overture is unbeaten in her last four starts and has the class to dominate. Russian Crescendo is unexposed but may lack the experience.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is slow, Russian Crescendo could challenge, but Overture’s tactical versatility should see her home.
Race Name: Golf And Gallop Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 1m13y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 4:45
First: Morrophore
Age: 4
Weight: 10-2
Form: 361- (Progressive profile)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Luke Catton
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden
Trainer RTF% Form: 53%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 87
TS: 42
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Waardah
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 15- (Unexposed potential)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Jim Crowley
Trainer: Owen Burrows
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 88
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Morrophore’s recent third in a stronger race suggests she’s well-handicapped here. Waardah is unexposed but may need further experience.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace collapses, Waardah’s turn of foot could surprise, but Morrophore’s consistency should prevail.
Race Name: Join Southwell Golf Club Novice Stakes
Race Distance: 1m13y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 5:15
First: Dixieland Blues
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 2-2 (Consistent placed efforts)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Harry Davies
Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford
Trainer RTF% Form: 75%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 70
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Venezuelan
Age: 3
Weight: 9-4
Form: 82- (Needs to improve)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Trainer: Ralph Beckett
Trainer RTF% Form: 47%
RTF’s: Ran Below Form
OR: –
TS: 71
Probability: Second Horse Low
Analysis: Dixieland Blues has shown superior form in better company. Venezuelan needs to step up but has potential.
Scenario Analysis: A slow pace would suit Dixieland Blues’ tactical speed. Venezuelan could place if others underperform.
Race Name: Steve Gregory 65th Birthday Handicap
Race Distance: 6f16y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 5:45
First: Hammer The Hammer
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: 42-21 (Progressive)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Tom Eaves
Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Trainer RTF% Form: 46%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 82
TS: 70
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Noble Victory
Age: 3
Weight: 9-1
Form: 2134 (Consistent)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Hector Crouch
Trainer: James Tate
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 80
TS: 78
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Hammer The Hammer’s recent win marks him as the one to beat. Noble Victory is consistent but may lack a turn of foot.
Scenario Analysis: If the race becomes a sprint, Noble Victory could challenge, but Hammer The Hammer’s recent form is superior.
Race Name: Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap
Race Distance: 6f16y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 6:15
First: Westmorian
Age: 6
Weight: 9-4
Form: 8-2111 (In career-best form)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Oliver Stammers
Trainer: Grant Tuer
Trainer RTF% Form: 38%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 90
TS: 90
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Dutch Kingdom
Age: 5
Weight: 9-6
Form: 1512-1 (Consistent)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Liam Wright
Trainer: Darryll Holland
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 92
TS: 90
Probability: Second Horse High
Analysis: Westmorian’s hat-trick of wins makes him the clear choice. Dutch Kingdom is a danger but may need softer ground.
Scenario Analysis: Any rain would bring Dutch Kingdom into contention, but Westmorian’s current form is irresistible.
Race Name: Bloomfields Horseboxes Handicap
Race Distance: 2m102y
Racecourse: Southwell (AW)
Time of Race: 6:45
First: Caballo De Mar
Age: 4
Weight: 8-10
Form: 211-11 (Progressive stayer)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Trainer: George Scott
Trainer RTF% Form: 15%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 85
TS: 92
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Manxman
Age: 5
Weight: 9-3
Form: 23312- (Stamina proven)
Going: Standard
Jockey: Sean Bowen
Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford
Trainer RTF% Form: 75%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 90
TS: 91
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Caballo De Mar’s progressive profile gives him the edge. Manxman will relish the trip but may lack the class.
Scenario Analysis: A truly-run race would suit Manxman, but Caballo De Mar’s tactical speed should prevail.
Out of my analysis for Southwell on the 27th of April 2025, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: Overture
Age: 4
Weight: 10-0
Form: 31111- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 88
TS: 58
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Overture has shown flawless recent form and is expected to improve further, making her a standout even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The standard conditions suit her perfectly, and her high OR and consistency make her the best value pick.
In summary, Overture presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between winning potential and performance metrics.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Southwell – 27th April 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Grace & Dotty Fedora’s And Feathers Handicap (3:15 PM)
- Drifts Away (~80%)
- Giorgio M (~70%) *[Flagged: <80%]*
Weekend Winners On Sky Sports Racing Handicap (3:45 PM)
- Tourist (~80%)
- Lil Guff (~70%) *[Flagged: <80%]*
British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (4:15 PM)
- Pique’ (~80%)
- Russian Crescendo (~75%) *[Flagged: <80%]*
Golf And Gallop Fillies’ Handicap (4:45 PM)
- Morrophore (~80%)
- Bintjeddah (~75%) *[Flagged: <80%]*
Join Southwell Golf Club Novice Stakes (5:15 PM)
- Dixieland Blues (~80%)
- Venezuelan (~70%) *[Flagged: <80%]*
Steve Gregory 65th Birthday Handicap (5:45 PM)
- Hammer The Hammer (~80%)
- Mr Cool (~75%) *[Flagged: <80%]*
Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap (6:15 PM)
- Northern Spirit (~80%)
- Westmorian (~75%) *[Flagged: <80%]*
Bloomfields Horseboxes Handicap (6:45 PM)
- Caballo De Mar (~80%)
- Manxman (~75%) *[Flagged: <80%]*
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Tourist (3:45 PM, Southwell, ~80%)
- Pique’ (4:15 PM, Southwell, ~80%)
- Morrophore (4:45 PM, Southwell, ~80%)
- Dixieland Blues (5:15 PM, Southwell, ~80%)
