🏇 Bet Smart & Win — Southwell (AW) Race Preview
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
🕟 Race 1 — Bet £10 Get £40 With BetMGM Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
- Distance: 7f 14y
- Time: 4:30
- Runners: 11
- Going: Standard
- Class: 5
- Overround: 111%
Top 3 Selections:
1️⃣ #10 Shafi (Form: 32) — J: David Allan, T: James Tate, RTF% 54, NP 29%, IP 26%
2️⃣ #6 Big Shot Veto (Form: 32) — J: George Wood, T: Lemos De Souza, RTF% 50, NP 22%, IP 20%
3️⃣ #4 Strong Voice (Form: 32) — J: Jason Hart, T: James Horton, RTF% 36, NP 13%, IP 12%
Analysis:
Shafi is the standout selection based on a promising C&D debut and superior normalized probability. Big Shot Veto and Strong Voice are respected based on their form and market positions, but Shafi holds the clearest claims.
🕔 Race 2 — Bet £10 Get £40 With BetMGM Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
- Distance: 4f 214y
- Time: 5:00
- Runners: 5
- Going: Standard
- Class: 5
- Overround: 108%
Top 3 Selections:
1️⃣ #1 Birdcall (Form: 12) — J: Kieran Shoemark, T: Ollie Sangster, RTF% 38, NP 65%, IP 60%
2️⃣ #2 Saxon Prince (Form: -) — J: Finley Marsh, T: Clive Cox, RTF% 40, NP 21%, IP 19%
3️⃣ #4 Havana Oaks (Form: 52) — J: Tom Eaves, T: Ivan Furtado, RTF% 40, NP 7%, IP 6%
Analysis:
Birdcall is a short-priced favourite for a reason after an impressive debut and is the most likely winner. Saxon Prince is an interesting newcomer but faces a tough task. Havana Oaks completes the shortlist based on experience.
🕠 Race 3 — Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Fillies’ Handicap
- Distance: 1m 3f 23y
- Time: 5:30
- Runners: 6
- Going: Standard
- Class: 5
- Overround: 109%
Top 3 Selections:
1️⃣ #2 Lightning Touch (Form: 4234p1) — J: Jack Mitchell, T: Roger Varian, RTF% 57, NP 31%, IP 28%
2️⃣ #3 Aiming High (Form: 644316h) — J: Georgia Dobie, T: David Simcock, RTF% 43, NP 26%, IP 24%
3️⃣ #6 Romantic Spirit (Form: 174323) — J: Sean Levey, T: David Menuisier, RTF% 38, NP 21%, IP 19%
Analysis:
Lightning Touch is unexposed and the drop in trip could suit perfectly, making her the selection. Aiming High is consistent and commands respect. Romantic Spirit is another solid contender in a competitive race.
🕕 Race 4 — Bet £10 Get £40 With BetMGM Handicap
- Distance: 7f 14y
- Time: 6:00
- Runners: 11
- Going: Standard
- Class: 3
- Overround: 112%
Top 3 Selections:
1️⃣ #4 Dapper Guest (Form: 741013v) — J: J F Egan, T: George Margarson, RTF% 67, NP 21%, IP 19%
2️⃣ #7 Morte Point (Form: 421213) — J: Lewis Edmunds, T: William Muir & Chris Grassick, RTF% 42, NP 19%, IP 17%
3️⃣ #6 Angel Hunter (Form: 58173) — J: Sean Levey, T: Richard Hannon, RTF% 57, NP 12%, IP 11%
Analysis:
Dapper Guest is in fine form and has a perfect AW record to defend. Morte Point is also in excellent heart and is a major player. Angel Hunter is a course winner and cannot be discounted.
🕡 Race 5 — Midnite, Building The Future Of Betting Handicap
- Distance: 1m 6f 21y
- Time: 6:30
- Runners: 10
- Going: Standard
- Class: 6
- Overround: 113%
Top 3 Selections:
1️⃣ #5 Top Of Pleinmont (Form: 244513) — J: Pat Cosgrave, T: David Evans, RTF% 25, NP 29%, IP 26%
2️⃣ #8 Doddington Guy (Form: 58933) — J: Sean Levey, T: David Menuisier, RTF% 38, NP 13%, IP 12%
3️⃣ #4 Ana Emaraaty (Form: 314475) — J: Paul Mulrennan, T: Jim Goldie, RTF% 41, NP 11%, IP 10%
Analysis:
Top Of Pleinmont arrives in winning form and is unexposed over this new trip, making him the clear pick. Doddington Guy and Ana Emaraaty are consistent sorts who should be in the mix.
🕖 Race 6 — Make The Move To Midnite Handicap
- Distance: 1m 3f 23y
- Time: 7:00
- Runners: 6
- Going: Standard
- Class: 5
- Overround: 110%
Top 3 Selections:
1️⃣ #6 Divot (Form: 324723) — J: Harry Davies, T: William Knight, RTF% 40, NP 32%, IP 29%
2️⃣ #5 Gilthoniel (Form: 6793h) — J: Georgia Dobie, T: Edward Smyth-Osbourne, NP 13%, IP 12%
3️⃣ #2 Phaedra (Form: 115173) — J: Sean Levey, T: Richard Hannon, RTF% 57, NP 21%, IP 19%
Analysis:
Divot is the form pick and has been knocking on the door, making him the one to beat. Gilthoniel is an intriguing handicap debutant with a pedigree that suggests improvement is likely. Phaedra is a course and distance winner who must be respected.
🕢 Race 7 — Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap
- Distance: 1m 13y
- Time: 7:30
- Runners: 8
- Going: Standard
- Class: 5
- Overround: 111%
Top 3 Selections:
1️⃣ #1 Beaming Light (Form: 253735) — J: Jack Mitchell, T: David Loughnane, RTF% 26, NP 32%, IP 29%
2️⃣ #8 Coloane (Form: 521365) — J: Mark Winn, T: Roger Fell, RTF% 38, NP 17%, IP 15%
3️⃣ #5 Midnight Ravens (Form: 00744tb1) — J: Kieran Shoemark, T: Paul Attwater, RTF% 17, NP 14%, IP 13%
Analysis:
Beaming Light has strong form claims from a better race over this C&D and is the standout selection. Coloane is consistent and should be in the firing line again. Midnight Ravens is an improving sort who could pose a threat.
🕗 Race 8 — Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Div I)
- Distance: 7f 14y
- Time: 8:00
- Runners: 11
- Going: Standard
- Class: 6
- Overround: 114%
Top 3 Selections:
1️⃣ #5 Latin (Form: 531224) — J: Paddy Bradley, T: James Owen, RTF% 48, NP 22%, IP 19%
2️⃣ #6 Imola (Form: 565324b) — J: Andrea Pinna, T: Joey Ramsden, RTF% 25, NP 18%, IP 16%
3️⃣ #7 Sands Of Dubai (Form: 702103h) — J: Barry McHugh, T: Richard Fahey, RTF% 49, NP 12%, IP 11%
Analysis:
Latin has been in excellent consistent form and holds solid claims. Imola was unlucky not to win last time and is a major danger. Sands Of Dubai is another in good heart and completes the shortlist.
🕣 Race 9 — Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap (Div II)
- Distance: 7f 14y
- Time: 8:30
- Runners: 9
- Going: Standard
- Class: 6
- Overround: 111%
Top 3 Selections:
1️⃣ #5 Oselton (Form: 387143) — J: Sean Kirrane, T: Craig Lidster, RTF% 14, NP 22%, IP 20%
2️⃣ #1 Spun To Gold (Form: 546614) — J: Paul Mulrennan, T: Jim Goldie, RTF% 41, NP 28%, IP 25%
3️⃣ #7 Von Krolock (Form: 420076p) — J: Paddy Bradley, T: James Owen, RTF% 48, NP 16%, IP 14%
Analysis:
Oselton is selected to reverse form with the favourite after an unlucky run last time, offering better value. Spun To Gold is the obvious form pick and must be respected. Von Krolock is capable on his day and completes the selections.
🏅 Nap of the Meeting — Southwell (AW)
Horse: #1 Beaming Light (Form: 253735)
Race: Class 5 Handicap over 1m 13y (7:30)
Confidence: Strong C&D form in higher grade, ideal conditions, fair value edge.
💡 Summary: This is the Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the AI model. Back with confidence.