Bet Smart & Win — Southwell Race Preview
Friday 31 October 2025 • Southwell (AW) • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: S Woods
- Trip: 1m6f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Strong trainer form, recent C&D win, and NP well above IP. Clear value.
Details
- J: Kaiya Fraser
- T: Rebecca Menzies
- Trip: 1m6f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 45%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Arrives in form, well treated, 3lb claim helps. Model says fair at current price.
Details
- J: Shay Farmer
- T: Brian Ellison
- Trip: 1m6f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Improved since wind op, still well enough treated. NP > IP = small value edge.
Details
- J: Rob Hornby
- T: Jonathan Portman
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Kempton win stacks up; carries penalty; model calls this fair not cheap (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent and top jockey up, but trading short vs true chance (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Oisin Orr
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Up in trip looks right; shaping like a stayer; priced about fair.
Details
- J: Ryan Sexton
- T: Julie Camacho
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 24%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Leicester debut screamed promise; still the one they all have to beat, but short (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: S Woods
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 71%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Solid profile, stable flying, and NP ≈ IP = fairly priced danger.
Details
- J: Joe Fanning
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Should love six; key player but not currently a ‘value’ line (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Hamad Al Jehani
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 86%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Stable red hot, comes here after a big run. Trading roughly fair.
Details
- J: William Carver
- T: Jamie Osborne
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
In reliable nick but priced a touch warm (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Jason Hart
- T: Michael Herrington
- Trip: 6f16y
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Ground/trip OK and Ayr Gold Cup form reads well, but model says underlay (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Ashley Lewis
- T: Philip McBride
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Arrives in form and still feasibly treated. Model: roughly fair (IP slightly > NP).
Details
- J: Lewis Edmunds
- T: Roy Bowring
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Back to the AW off a workable mark. Can run to his figure; fair price zone.
Details
- J: Oliver Carmichael
- T: Bryan Smart
- Trip: 4f214y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Reliable, keeps hitting the frame, but market rarely misses him (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Benoit De La Sayette
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m4f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
The one to beat on form, but market is very aggressive (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Lewis Edmunds
- T: William Muir & Chris Grassick
- Trip: 1m4f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Open to progress; model says she’s the value alternative (NP > IP).
Details
- J: Ryan Sexton
- T: Julie Camacho
- Trip: 1m4f14y
- Trainer RTF%: 24%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 106%
Analysis
Another with promise; each-way squeak if fav underdelivers.
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Michael Bell
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent and handles surface. Model: fairly priced topweight.
Details
- J: Paul Mulrennan
- T: Ian Williams
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
From an in-form yard with course figures. Live player, value looks fair.
Details
- J: Hollie Doyle
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 31%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Britannia form reads strong. NP ≥ IP so he’s priced a touch kind.
Details
- J: Ryan Kavanagh
- T: Ian Williams
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 72%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
- Well-in: 6lb ahead of the assessor under penalty
Analysis
Smashed them last week, still thrown in. Everything lines up bar pure ‘value’ maths.
Details
- J: Sean Kirrane
- T: Tim Easterby
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 34%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Reliable and fit, but market may be a touch short (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Callum Rodriguez
- T: Stella Barclay
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 29%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
C&D winner, still lurking on a workable mark. NP ≥ IP: small value angle.
Details
- J: Lewis Edmunds
- T: Roy Bowring
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Latest C&D second has worked out, and he sets the standard on balance.
Details
- J: William Carson
- T: Tony Carroll
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Trending the right way, but model thinks he’s a touch short (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Dylan Hogan
- T: Michael Herrington
- Trip: 1m13y
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
C&D scorer who has to be respected, but again the market is a shade keen (IP > NP).
Analysis
6lb well-in under a penalty after an easy win, ideal 1m trip on Standard Tapeta, and stable/jockey combo in form. This is the “run-that-wins” scenario according to the model.