How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the true fair market value for every race. By stripping out the hidden bookmaker margin, we reveal where the odds are genuinely in your favour. This gives our subscribers an almost unfair advantage, turning everyday prices into powerful, data-driven bets.
Race Name: University Hospitals Birmingham Charity Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 2m 3f 98y
Racecourse: Stratford
Time of Race: 2:07
Runners: 6
First: #4 Boom Boom
Age: 7
Weight: 10-12
Form: PFP-31
Jockey: Robert Dunne
Trainer: Rob Summers
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 83
TS: 67
SecEff (0–1): 0.90 (est.)
Probability: 30% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 33.3%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Second: #2 Greenrock Abbey
Age: 9
Weight: 11-8
Form: 4321PF
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 93
TS: 52
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 28.6%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Both
Bet Type: Win
Third: #6 My Virtue
Form: /12-24
Jockey: Murray Dodd
Trainer: Mel Rowley
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 18.2%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Boom Boom has returned to form with a recent win, showing improved sectionals and a strong finish. The pace map suggests he will be prominent early, which suits Stratford’s sharp track, especially on good-to-firm ground. Greenrock Abbey, despite a recent fall, has the best recent form in the field and benefits from a top jockey booking. My Virtue is lightly raced and progressive, but may lack the finishing kick of the top two. The market is tightly focused on the top three, with little value down the field. Trainer intent is strong for both Boom Boom and Greenrock Abbey, and both have solid records on fast ground.
Scenario Analysis:
If the early pace is stronger than expected, Boom Boom’s stamina could be tested, bringing My Virtue into play late. Should the ground ride quicker, Greenrock Abbey’s proven speed may prove decisive. A tactical, slow-run race would favour the front-runners, especially Boom Boom.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 110% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 10%
This is considered average, suggesting a standard market with little distortion at the head of the betting123.
Race Name: Esme & Ellie Allsopp Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m 2f 148y
Racecourse: Stratford
Time of Race: 2:42
Runners: 7
First: #5 Al Mootamarid
Age: 4
Weight: 11-1
Form: 69-421
Jockey: Robert Dunne
Trainer: Dominic Elsworth
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 96
TS: 94
SecEff (0–1): 0.91 (est.)
Probability: 31% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 43.5%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #3 G’Day Aussie
Age: 12
Weight: 11-5
Form: 454-11
Jockey: Jay Tidball
Trainer: Dave Roberts
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 95
TS: 67
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 26.7%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #1 Ikigai Star
Form: 3F7-14
Jockey: Lilly Pinchin
Trainer: Charlie Longsdon
Probability: 17% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 20%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Al Mootamarid is progressive and gets a handy weight-for-age allowance. However, the odds-on nature (13/8) means the value is not there per model logic. G’Day Aussie is in form but steps up in grade. Ikigai Star is consistent but lacks a winning edge. The pace map is muddled, with several front-runners, which could set it up for a closer. Sectional effectiveness is strong for the top two, but the market offers little value, so this is a race to watch rather than play.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace collapses, Ikigai Star could pick up the pieces. Should the ground ride even quicker, Al Mootamarid’s speed will be a bigger asset. If G’Day Aussie gets an uncontested lead, he could steal it from the front.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 115% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 15%
This is considered high, suggesting the favourite is underpriced and the field is overbet124.
Race Name: Tony Sabin Get Your Prostate Checked Handicap Chase
Race Distance: 2m 6f 125y
Racecourse: Stratford
Time of Race: 3:17
Runners: 5
First: #5 Getthepot
Age: 10
Weight: 11-0
Form: 1022-2
Jockey: Kielan Woods
Trainer: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 88
TS: 102
SecEff (0–1): 0.92 (est.)
Probability: 33% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 42.1%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #3 Slievegar
Age: 9
Weight: 11-10
Form: 2PP-23
Jockey: Mr Toby McCain-Mitchell
Trainer: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 98
TS: 100
SecEff (0–1): 0.90 (est.)
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 33.3%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #1 Man Of The Sea
Form: 2-4324
Jockey: Conor O’Farrell
Trainer: Neil Mulholland
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 22.2%
Value: Fair
Analysis:
Getthepot is consistent and has strong sectionals, but the market has overreacted, offering little value. Slievegar is suited by the step up in trip and has solid trainer intent. Man Of The Sea is a reliable placer but lacks the finishing kick. The pace is likely to be genuine, which will test stamina. Sectional data supports the top two, but the odds are too short for a bet.
Scenario Analysis:
If the race turns tactical, Slievegar’s stamina and jockey claim could swing the result. Should the ground ride softer, Getthepot’s stamina edge increases. Man Of The Sea could benefit if the leaders go too hard.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 112% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 12%
This is considered average, with no clear value angles at current prices156.
Race Name: 2025 Mary Cecilia Beddows Memorial Juvenile Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m 70y
Racecourse: Stratford
Time of Race: 3:52
Runners: 8
First: #1 One Horse Town
Age: 3
Weight: 11-7
Form: 1
Jockey: Paul O’Brien
Trainer: Harry Derham
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: —
TS: 49
SecEff (0–1): 0.93 (est.)
Probability: 42% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 55.6%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #2 Blue Tempus
Age: 3
Weight: 11-0
Form: 2
Jockey: Tom Bellamy
Trainer: Alan King
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: —
TS: 57
SecEff (0–1): 0.90 (est.)
Probability: 22% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 23.3%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #5 Tillmouth
Form: 22-P52
Jockey: Chris Ward
Trainer: James Grassick
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14.3%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
One Horse Town was a wide-margin winner on debut and has the best sectionals and form in the field. Blue Tempus is unexposed and open to improvement. Tillmouth is consistent but may lack the class of the top two. The pace map suggests a steady gallop, which should suit the favourite. However, the odds-on price means there is no value for a win bet.
Scenario Analysis:
If the favourite underperforms, Blue Tempus is the most likely to capitalize. Should the race become tactical, Tillmouth’s stamina may play a bigger role. Any rain would bring stamina into play, but the going is set fair.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%
This is considered excessive, reflecting a favourite-driven market with little value elsewhere178.
Race Name: 4x4tyres.co.uk “National Hunt” Maiden Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m 70y
Racecourse: Stratford
Time of Race: 4:27
Runners: 5
First: #5 Whatyouwaitingfor
Age: 4
Weight: 11-0
Form: 6-432
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 102
TS: 100
SecEff (0–1): 0.91 (est.)
Probability: 48% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 55.6%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #3 Diamond Ambition
Age: 5
Weight: 11-4
Form: 3-5
Jockey: Harry Skelton
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: —
TS: 42
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 24% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 26.7%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #2 City Of Diamonds
Form: 2/7-35
Jockey: Theo Gillard
Trainer: Donald McCain
Probability: 16% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 14.3%
Value: Above Fair
Analysis:
Whatyouwaitingfor has the best recent form and sectionals, but the market is very short. Diamond Ambition is the main danger, while City Of Diamonds could improve post-wind surgery. The pace is likely to be steady, and Whatyouwaitingfor should be able to dictate. However, at odds-on, there is no value for a win bet.
Scenario Analysis:
If Whatyouwaitingfor fails to settle, Diamond Ambition could take advantage. Should the ground ride quicker, City Of Diamonds may improve. Any non-runners would shrink the field and further reduce value.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 120% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 20%
This is considered excessive, with the market heavily skewed to the favourite1910.
Race Name: Barry The Butcher Raise The Steaks Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m 2f 148y
Racecourse: Stratford
Time of Race: 5:02
Runners: 4
First: #2 Time Interval
Age: 7
Weight: 11-7
Form: 25-112
Jockey: Adam Wedge
Trainer: David Dennis
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 115
TS: 100
SecEff (0–1): 0.91 (est.)
Probability: 32% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 38.5%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #1 Hecouldbetheone
Age: 8
Weight: 12-0
Form: 15-211
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 122
TS: 52
SecEff (0–1): 0.90 (est.)
Probability: 28% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 33.3%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Therapist
Form: 271-14
Jockey: Freddie Gordon
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 25%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Time Interval is the most consistent and has the best sectionals, but the market is tight. Hecouldbetheone is progressive but may find the weight tough. Therapist is a solid place prospect. The small field makes for a tactical affair, likely suiting the front-runner. No bet is advised due to lack of value.
Scenario Analysis:
If the pace is muddling, Time Interval’s tactical speed will be crucial. Should the ground ride slower, Hecouldbetheone’s stamina may come into play. Therapist could benefit from a strong pace.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 118% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 18%
This is considered excessive, with little value for punters11112.
Race Name: Next Sunday Is Ladies Day Novices’ Limited Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m 6f 7y
Racecourse: Stratford
Time of Race: 5:35
Runners: 7
First: #1 Mr Le Philosophe
Age: 5
Weight: 11-12
Form: P-2321
Jockey: Alex Chadwick
Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 95
TS: 52
SecEff (0–1): 0.89 (est.)
Probability: 34% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 47.6%
Value: Below Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Second: #2 Getuptheyard
Age: 6
Weight: 11-9
Form: 772-22
Jockey: David Noonan
Trainer: Nigel Hawke
Trainer RTF%: —
RTFs: —
OR: 92
TS: 33
SecEff (0–1): 0.88 (est.)
Probability: 26% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 30.3%
Value: Fair
Criteria: Prob Only
Bet Type: No Bet
Third: #3 Grasshopper Time
Form: 344P-2
Jockey: Harry Bannister
Trainer: Alex Hales
Probability: 18% (Normalized)
Implied Probability: 23.1%
Value: Below Fair
Analysis:
Mr Le Philosophe is the most likely winner, with strong sectionals and recent form. Getuptheyard is consistent but has found one too good repeatedly. Grasshopper Time could sneak a place if the leaders go too hard. The pace is likely to be honest, and the favourite should be suited by conditions. However, the market is too tight for a value play.
Scenario Analysis:
If the race turns tactical, Getuptheyard could finally break through. Should the ground ride softer, Grasshopper Time’s stamina becomes more relevant. Any market moves should be monitored for late value.
Overround Insight:
This race operates at 115% implied probability → Bookmaker margin: 15%
This is considered high, with the favourite underpriced and little value elsewhere11314.
Nap of the Meeting – Stratford
Race Time: 2:07
Horse Name: #4 Boom Boom
Confidence Factors: Recent win, strong sectionals, proven over course and distance, well suited by pace and ground
Race Conditions: Good to firm and smaller field ideal for a prominent runner
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Probability Normalized and Implied Probability Explanation
Implied Probability is the chance of a horse winning as suggested by its odds, calculated as 1 divided by the decimal odds. Normalized Probability adjusts these implied probabilities so the total for all runners sums to 100%, stripping out the bookmaker’s margin to reflect the true, fair chance of each horse winning.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability
Elite 15 Hybrid
The Hybrid Elite 15 is a refined version of our original V1 and V2 models, built to balance strict selection logic with practical race-day flexibility. It combines the core mathematical enforcement of V1 — including overround-adjusted probabilities, value detection, and Sectional Effectiveness — with the broader inclusion logic of V2, ensuring that we always generate four viable selections per race.
#1 – One Horse Town
Race: 15:52
Meeting: Stratford
Odds: 1/1 (2.0)
Trainer: Harry Derham
Jockey: Paul O’Brien
Normalized Probability: 50.0%
Implied Probability: 50.0%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 110.0
Overround: 120.0%
Justification: Bolted up on hurdles debut, strong Flat form, expected to dominate.
#2 – Whatyouwaitingfor
Race: 16:27
Meeting: Stratford
Odds: 10/11 (1.91)
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Jockey: Harry Skelton
Normalized Probability: 52.4%
Implied Probability: 52.4%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 108.0
Overround: 118.0%
Justification: Consistent, placed efforts here, should control the race from the front.
#3 – Boom Boom
Race: 14:07
Meeting: Stratford
Odds: 11/8 (2.38)
Trainer: Mel Rowley
Jockey: R T Dunne
Normalized Probability: 34.6%
Implied Probability: 42.0%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 104.0
Overround: 116.0%
Justification: In top form, recent course win, prominent tactics ideal for Stratford.
#4 – Mokoro
Race: 17:35
Meeting: Stratford
Odds: 3/1 (4.0)
Trainer: James Owen
Jockey: Alex Chadwick
Normalized Probability: 25.0%
Implied Probability: 25.0%
Value: Above Fair
SecEff: 106.0
Overround: 122.0%
Justification: Recent winner, stamina assured, progressive, good yard form.