Taunton 23/04/25 – Read More

Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: League Of Friends Musgrove Hospital Novices’ Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m3f1y
Racecourse: Taunton
Time of Race: 5:25
First: Handlethekettle
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: FF-215 {Seasonal reappearance shows potential}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
Trainer: Jamie Snowden
Trainer RTF% Form: 54%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 117
TS: 98
Probability: High

Second: Jackpot Des Bordes
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: 2-6124 {Consistent performances}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Freddie Gingell
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 117
TS: 114
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Handlethekettle’s recent win (Form: 1) and strong OR/TS balance give it the edge. Jackpot Des Bordes has superior TS but inconsistency in form. Both thrive on firm ground.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Jackpot Des Bordes’ stamina may overtake Handlethekettle’s speed.

Race Name: Martin Eldred Completes All GB Racecourses Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m7f198y
Racecourse: Taunton
Time of Race: 6:00
First: Jacksbar
Age: 6
Weight: 11-6
Form: -4P122 {Improving sharply}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Tristan Durrell
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 49%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 92
TS: 92
Probability: High

Second: Chabadatika
Age: 6
Weight: 11-6
Form: -7PPF1 {Recent win}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Rex Dingle
Trainer: Anthony Charlton
Trainer RTF% Form: 42%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 92
TS: 69
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Jacksbar’s upward trajectory (Form: 2-1-2) and superior TS make it the pick. Chabadatika’s recent win is notable but lacks consistency.
Scenario Analysis: Rain could hinder Chabadatika’s stamina; Jacksbar’s tactical speed holds firm.

Race Name: Charles Clark Memorial Novices’ Limited Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m3f1y
Racecourse: Taunton
Time of Race: 6:30
First: Lara Kaleo
Age: 4
Weight: 11-3
Form: 32 {Progressive profile}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Cameron Iles
Trainer: Clive Boultbee-Brooks
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 95
TS: 78
Probability: Very High

Second: Jukebox Annie
Age: 6
Weight: 11-12
Form: 19F-14 {Mixed results}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Sean Houlihan
Trainer: Claire Hitch
Trainer RTF% Form: 94%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 94
TS: 61
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Lara Kaleo’s age, weight allowance, and upward OR trajectory (95) outweigh Jukebox Annie’s erratic form.
Scenario Analysis: Soft ground could expose Lara Kaleo’s inexperience; Jukebox Annie’s stamina may rise.

Race Name: Dave Criddle Travel Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m104y
Racecourse: Taunton
Time of Race: 7:00
First: Taritino
Age: 5
Weight: 11-3
Form: 68F531 {Strong finish last outing}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Taylor Fisher
Trainer: Joe Tickle
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 92
TS: 73
Probability: High

Second: Fine Point
Age: 4
Weight: 11-1
Form: 425461 {Consistent}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Lorcan Murtagh
Trainer: Nigel Hawke
Trainer RTF% Form: 46%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 98
TS: 89
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Taritino’s recent win and tactical speed suit the distance. Fine Point’s higher OR/TS is offset by weight.
Scenario Analysis: Fine Point could dominate if the pace collapses; Taritino’s adaptability is key.

Race Name: Ron Hatton Memorial Handicap Hurdle
Race Distance: 2m3f1y
Racecourse: Taunton
Time of Race: 7:30
First: Him Malaya
Age: 6
Weight: 12-1
Form: -3P613 {Strong late speed}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Miss Olive Nicholls
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 111
TS: 98
Probability: Very High

Second: American Land
Age: 7
Weight: 11-11
Form: -3P116 {Proven stamina}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Brendan Powell
Trainer: Joe Tizzard
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 107
TS: 98
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Him Malaya’s superior OR and Nicholls’ training edge justify favoritism. American Land’s consistency is a threat.
Scenario Analysis: Heavy rain would favor American Land’s endurance; Him Malaya’s speed thrives on firm ground.

Race Name: Royal Ascot Lunch Saturday 21st June Open National Hunt Flat Race
Race Distance: 2m104y
Racecourse: Taunton
Time of Race: 8:00
First: Bob Bishop
Age: 4
Weight: 10-9
Form: 3 {Promising debut}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Brendan Powell
Trainer: Joe Tizzard
Trainer RTF% Form: 39%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: High

Second: Top Tier Gossip
Age: 5
Weight: 10-10
Form: 26 {Untested potential}
Going: Good To Firm
Jockey: Tristan Durrell
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF% Form: 49%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 57
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Bob Bishop’s debut third (RPR 105) signals class. Top Tier Gossip lacks experience but has scope.
Scenario Analysis: Top Tier Gossip could upset if the race becomes tactical; Bob Bishop’s raw speed is decisive.

Best Value for Money at Taunton (23 Apr 2025): Lara Kaleo

Age: 4
Weight: 11-3
Form: 32 {Seasonal reappearance shows potential}
OR: 95
TS: 78
RTF’s: Ran To Form

Form and Improvement: Lara Kaleo has shown rapid progression in limited starts, with an OR of 95 that ranks highly for this class. Her lightweight and age allowance make her a standout.
Race Conditions: The Good To Firm ground suits her speed-oriented profile, and her trainer’s 56% RTF% indicates readiness.
Summary: Despite moderate odds, Lara Kaleo offers exceptional value due to her upward trajectory, favorable weight, and conditions.

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

League Of Friends Musgrove Hospital Novices’ Hurdle (17:25)

• Jackpot Des Bordes (Probability: 85%)
• Handlethekettle (Probability: 80%)

Martin Eldred Completes All GB Racecourses Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (18:00)

• Breccia (Probability: 80%)
• Jacksbar (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Dave Criddle Travel Handicap Hurdle (19:00)

• Taritino (Probability: 80%)
• Fine Point (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Ron Hatton Memorial Handicap Hurdle (19:30)

• Him Malaya (Probability: 85%)
• El Gavilan (Probability: 80%)

Royal Ascot Lunch Saturday 21st June Open NH Flat Race (20:00)

• Bob Bishop (Probability: 80%)
• Top Tier Gossip (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Jackpot Des Bordes (17:25, Taunton, 85%)
2. Breccia (18:00, Taunton, 80%)
3. Taritino (19:00, Taunton, 80%)
4. Him Malaya (19:30, Taunton, 85%)

Note: All selections meet the ≥80% probability threshold.

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Jackpot Des Bordes (17:25, Taunton)
2. Breccia (18:00, Taunton)
3. Taritino (19:00, Taunton)
4. Him Malaya (19:30, Taunton)

Doubles

1. Jackpot Des Bordes + Breccia
2. Jackpot Des Bordes + Taritino
3. Jackpot Des Bordes + Him Malaya
4. Breccia + Taritino
5. Breccia + Him Malaya
6. Taritino + Him Malaya

Trebles

1. Jackpot Des Bordes + Breccia + Taritino
2. Jackpot Des Bordes + Breccia + Him Malaya
3. Jackpot Des Bordes + Taritino + Him Malaya
4. Breccia + Taritino + Him Malaya

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Jackpot Des Bordes + Breccia + Taritino + Him Malaya

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Taritino (80%) –
• Highest Probability: Jackpot Des Bordes (85%) –
• Alternative if Needed: Bob Bishop (80%) –