BSW — Race Preview

Bet Smart & Win — Race Preview

Thu 02/10/25 • 2 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability

How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge

We derive Fair Market Value by adjusting for Overround, then compare Normalized Probability (NP) vs Implied Probability (IP). IP bars turn red when IP > NP.

Arc All-Weather Bonus Hcap (Div I) — 2:13

Newcastle • 11 runners • Standard

R1 Cl5 111%
#8 Enpassant
Form: 3261214 • Trainer: Michael Herrington
Jack CallanAF
NP
18%
IP
16%
Details
  • Class: 5
  • Overround: 111%
  • Runners: 11
  • Going: Standard
  • Jockey: Jack Callan
Analysis

Form string 3-2-6-1-2-1-4 shows two wins and two seconds from the last seven, with a brief mid-sequence dip before rebounding; overall a consistent performer holding recent form.

#6 Al Muqdad
Form: 0000425 • Trainer: David O’Meara
Cian HorganBF
NP
16%
IP
20%
Details
  • Class: 5
  • Overround: 111%
  • Runners: 11
  • Going: Standard
  • Jockey: Cian Horgan
Analysis

Sequence 0-0-0-0-4-2-5 maps a turnaround after four quiet runs, peaking with a second then holding fair level; trending better but still seeking a finishing kick.

#2 Flying Fletcher
Form: 0055934 • Trainer: Richard Fahey
Warren FentimanF
NP
15%
IP
15%
Details
  • Class: 5
  • Overround: 111%
  • Runners: 11
  • Going: Standard
  • Jockey: Warren Fentiman
Analysis

The 0-0-5-5-9-3-4 line shows early blanks and a mid-sequence ninth, followed by improved efforts into third and fourth; increasingly reliable for minor money without a clear win signal yet.

Border Minstrel Handicap — 3:55

Newcastle • 11 runners • Standard

R2 Cl4 109%
#3 Bragbor
Form: 1214 • Trainer: George Scott
Darragh KeenanBF
NP
26%
IP
29%
Details
  • Class: 4
  • Overround: 109%
  • Runners: 11
  • Going: Standard
  • Jockey: Darragh Keenan
Analysis

Compact 1-2-1-4 profile: two wins and a second across four runs before a recent fourth; clearly in good heart and generally running to a high level.

#7 North View
Form: 796344 • Trainer: George Boughey
Billy LoughnaneF
NP
11%
IP
12%
Details
  • Class: 4
  • Overround: 109%
  • Runners: 11
  • Going: Standard
  • Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Analysis

Form sequence 7-9-6-3-4-4 charts gradual tightening up from midfield into a placed third, then repeated fourths; consistent and honest, more likely to hit the frame than win.

#5 Crack Shot
Form: 3054435 • Trainer: James Owen
Pat CosgraveBF
NP
11%
IP
20%
Details
  • Class: 4
  • Overround: 109%
  • Runners: 11
  • Going: Standard
  • Jockey: Pat Cosgrave
Analysis

The 3-0-5-4-4-3-5 run points to a frequent frame finisher with thirds and fourths but no recent win; dependable for minor honours, needs conditions to tilt in his favour.

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