Bet Smart & Win — Kempton Race Preview
Tue 07/10/25 • 8 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Odds: 7/2 (4.50)
Analysis
Favourite with strong NP; market efficient at this price (F).
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: William Knight
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Odds: 4/1 (5.00)
Analysis
Consistent place claims; AF value vs market.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
- Trip: 1m3f219y
- Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Analysis
Similar value profile to Blue Train; minor preference to BT on consistency.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 2/5 (1.40)
Analysis
Odds-on type with a clear NP > IP edge; standout AF qualifier.
Details
- J: Jamie Spencer
- T: Harry Eustace
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 6/1 (7.00)
Analysis
Second on figures; AF but below NP threshold for qualifier.
Details
- J: William Carver
- T: Jamie Osborne
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 16/1 (17.00)
Analysis
Completes trio; longshot to balance market exposure.
Details
- J: Oisin Murphy
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 8/15 (1.53)
Analysis
Strong fav; AF with NP over threshold and whitelist jockey — qualifier.
Details
- J: William Buick
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 9/2 (5.50)
Analysis
Main rival; AF but NP below 27, so not a strict qualifier.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Owen Burrows
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 10/1 (11.00)
Analysis
Debutant with AF differential; developmental type.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 6f
- Odds: 10/3 (4.33)
Analysis
All criteria met: OV 108 (green), Class 4, 10 runners, whitelist jockey, NP 31% in band, AF, odds 10/3 (4.33).
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: Tom Clover
- Trip: 6f
- Odds: 7/2 (4.50)
Analysis
Heads market; AF but NP below threshold for qualifier.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 6f
- Odds: 9/2 (5.50)
Analysis
Solid AF behind the fav; competitive nursery.
Details
- J: Jack Mitchell
- T: Roger Varian
- Trip: 6f
- Odds: 3/1 (4.00)
Analysis
Standout selection with NP in the ideal band; fails strict qualifier only on whitelist rule.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: James Tate
- Trip: 6f
- Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Analysis
Second pick; positive AF but NP below threshold.
Details
- J: Jack Dace
- T: Stuart Kittow
- Trip: 6f
- Odds: 9/1 (10.00)
Analysis
Third string; AF differential but below thresholds.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: David Menuisier
- Trip: 1m
- Odds: 5/2 (3.50)
Analysis
Top-rated by model with AF; just under NP threshold for qualifier.
Details
- J: Charles Bishop
- T: Eve Johnson Houghton
- Trip: 1m
- Odds: 7/1 (8.00)
Analysis
Second pick on figures; AF, competitive handicap.
Details
- J: Tommie Jakes
- T: Ismail Mohammed
- Trip: 1m
- Odds: 9/1 (10.00)
Analysis
Third choice; AF edge but below thresholds.
Details
- J: David Egan
- T: Charles Hills
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 9/2 (5.50)
Analysis
Marginal fav; AF in a wide-open race.
Details
- J: Sean Levey
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 11/2 (6.50)
Analysis
AF value; closely matched to Best Rate.
Details
- J: Joe Leavy
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 6/1 (7.00)
Analysis
AF value; tight-knit contest among principals.
Details
- J: Dougie Costello
- T: David Simcock
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 9/2 (5.50)
Analysis
Top of market; AF assessment.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: Harry Eustace
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 6/1 (7.00)
Analysis
Next best; AF with whitelist jockey.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Roger Teal
- Trip: 7f
- Odds: 13/2 (7.50)
Analysis
Third choice; AF and solid place angle.
Analysis
Strong AF value, NP 27% in ideal band, race conditions perfect. Not a strict qualifier only due to whitelist rule; still our Nap of the Meeting.