Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Prix de Saint-Georges (G3)
Race Distance: 5f (4f 214y)
Racecourse: Longchamp
Time of Race: 12:58
First: Electric Storm
Age: 5
Weight: 9-3
Form: 1-3-2-1-6 (ultra-consistent sprinter)
Going: Good-to-Soft expected at post-time
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Trainer: James Tate
Trainer RTF%: 62 % (14-day)
RTF’s: 102
OR: 110
TS: 101
Probability: High
Second: Ponntos
Age: 7
Weight: 9-3
Form: 2-2-7-2-4 (likes straight 5f, solid in Meydan)
Going: Good-to-Soft
Jockey: Alexis Pouchin
Trainer: Miroslav Nieslanik
Trainer RTF%: 24 %
RTF’s: 96
OR: 113
TS: 99
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Timeform’s card shows nine runners with veteran Pradaro heading the market, but Electric Storm brings the sharpest current speed figure off a Listed win at Bath and an excellent 112 RPR when second in last season’s G3 Prix du Petit Couvert. She’s drawn in gate 2, ideally placed on the “new” sprint chute that has favoured low draws in the last four renewals. Tate is running at 62 % RTF in the previous fortnight and Tudhope’s 23 % strike-rate with the yard adds confidence. Sectional data from Bath (final-2f 21.8 s) translates well to a flat, turning five; her RP Topspeed 101 is 7 lb clear of the field. Ponntos rates the main danger after a pair of Meydan Group placings and has twice won this race before, but his optimum is quicker turf and he concedes match-fitness to the selection.
Scenario Analysis: If unexpected rain turns the straight heavy, the pendulum swings to Ponntos, whose 2024 Saint-Georges win came on soft; Electric Storm’s top efforts are on good or faster. A strong early burn-up from pacey Lesslepasser could also set the race up for closers like Kylian darting late.
Race Name: Prix Auguste Rodin Coolmore Prix Saint-Alary (G2)
Race Distance: 1m 1f 207y
Racecourse: Longchamp
Time of Race: 13:33
First: Audubon Park
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 1-1 (progressive, unbeaten)
Going: Good-to-Soft
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard
Trainer RTF%: 27 %
RTF’s: 103
OR: 107 (Timeform p)
TS: 94
Probability: High
Second: Gezora
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 4-1-2-1-3 (solid pattern performer)
Going: Good-to-Soft
Jockey: Mickaël Barzalona
Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard
Trainer RTF%: 27 %
RTF’s: 98
OR: 103
TS: 91
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Only four fillies line up, and Graffard holds the aces. Audubon Park won the G3 Prix Vanteaux on the bridle, clocking the fastest final-3f sectional (34.5 s) recorded on the Grande Piste this spring. Her stride-length data (25.1 ft) suggests untapped cruising speed, and Soumillon is 19-65 (29 %) when linking with the handler at Longchamp. Stable-mate Gezora, third in the Vanteaux conceding track-position, handles today’s extra half-furlong but lacks her barn-mate’s turn-of-foot. Flaming Stone was flattered by a steady-run Listed win at Chantilly, while Jones must improve 10 lb on bare figures. With two in-form entries and a tactical edge from stall 3, the Graffard/Soumillon combo should dictate fractions and impose class.
Scenario Analysis: Should the going deteriorate to soft, Gezora’s proven stamina on deeper ground narrows the gap, whereas Audubon Park’s brilliance could be slightly blunted if this turns into a slog. An uncontested lead for Jones would inject pace and play to late-closer Flaming Stone.
Race Name: Super Handicap du Printemps
Race Distance: 1m 1f 207y
Racecourse: Longchamp
Time of Race: 14:15
First: Tribal Chief
Age: 4
Weight: 8-10
Form: 2-2-1-1-2 (improving miler)
Going: Good-to-Soft
Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Trainer: David Menuisier
Trainer RTF%: 44 %
RTF’s: 100
OR: 91
TS: 88
Probability: Moderate
Second: Watch Him
Age: 7
Weight: 9-1
Form: 3-1-3-0- (classy old-timer)
Going: Good-to-Soft
Jockey: Aurelien Madamet
Trainer: Jérôme Reynier
Trainer RTF%: 38 %
RTF’s: 95
OR: 97
TS: 90
Probability: Some
Analysis: Twenty go to post and early-market compression on stall-16 Tribal Chief reflects an eye-catching Newmarket second in a red-hot Class 2 (winner now 4-1f for the Hunt Cup). Sectionals show he covered the penultimate 2f 0.34 s faster than standard and was still tightening the screws late. From a midfield draw he’ll slot in behind pace-setters Casapueblo and Good Gift before unleashing that sustained run. IrishRacing’s Formscan flags him “likely winner” while RPRs grant him a 4lb pull with the weights. Watch Him won a Listed event over C&D last year off 102 and gets cheekpieces back; his 22-runner handicap record (2-6-1) proves he thrives in mayhem. The top-weight Casapueblo is classy but gives up 11 lb to progressive sorts and Fabre’s RTF figure is a below-par 50 % right now .
Scenario Analysis: If sharp showers turn it soft, closers drawn high can struggle; front-runners like Morphewan could dictate. Conversely, a drying wind promotes a searching end-to-end gallop, heightening Tribal Chief’s late-sectional edge.
Race Name: Emirates Poule d’Essai des Poulains (G1)
Race Distance: 1m (7f 209y)
Racecourse: Longchamp
Time of Race: 15:25
First: Henri Matisse
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 1-1-2-5-1-1 (BC Juvenile Turf hero; rock-solid)
Going: Good-to-Soft
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Trainer RTF%: 54 %
RTF’s: 112
OR: 116
TS: 105
Probability: Very High
Second: Hotazhell
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 4-1-1-2-1-1 (holds top Timeform figure)
Going: Good-to-Soft
Jockey: Shane Foley
Trainer: Mrs Jessica Harrington
Trainer RTF%: 40 %
RTF’s: 108
OR: 117
TS: 103
Probability: High
Analysis: Draw bias on the Grande Piste is crucial; nine of the last 11 winners started from stalls 1-9 . Henri Matisse lands in stall 6 with Moore, boasts the joint-highest OR (116) and clocked a 36.2 s final-3f at Leopardstown’s Craven equivalent despite being short of peak. O’Brien’s 14-day RTF is 54 % and the yard’s G1-to-G1 strike with juveniles turning three is 23 from 81 (28 %). Hotazhell (stall 2) brings an imposing Timeform rating and won the G2 KPMG Juvenile with a 112 TS on testing ground; the colt is two from two over a turning mile and Harrington is hitting 40 % RTF. Jonquil and Aomori City have scope but sit in the middle-to-outer gates where historic win% falls below 9 %. Henri Matisse’s pace-versatile profile, ideal draw and elite closing figures mark him the one to beat.
Scenario Analysis: A pace collapse off a blistering first-2f could let reachy closers like Jonquil swoop, but if rain deepens the surface, Hotazhell (heavy-ground 112 RPR) is the immediate beneficiary, whereas Henri Matisse’s turn-of-foot dulls slightly.
Race Name: Emirates Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (G1)
Race Distance: 1m (7f 209y)
Racecourse: Longchamp
Time of Race: 16:05
First: Zarigana
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 1-1-2-1 (top-rated French juvenile)
Going: Good-to-Soft
Jockey: Mickaël Barzalona
Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard
Trainer RTF%: 27 %
RTF’s: 109
OR: 113
TS: 104
Probability: Very High
Second: Mandanaba
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 1-1 (unbeaten Group-3 winner)
Going: Good-to-Soft
Jockey: Maxime Guyon
Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard
Trainer RTF%: 27 %
RTF’s: 105
OR: 109
TS: 100
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: The Sporting Life preview confirms Zarigana and Mandanaba head the betting for the Aga Khan/Graffard team . Zarigana’s Prix de la Grotte victory—despite crawl-then-sprint fractions—was worth a 112 Timeform rating and her low-draw stall 7 fits the historical template that draw is less decisive for fillies but still favourable. She owns the fastest juvenile RPR (116) in the field and her sectional profile (last-2f 22.9 s) screams acceleration ideally suited to rail-in configuration. Stable-mate Mandanaba, from stall 1, is the likely pace but has already clocked a 108 TS over 9f and can serve as both rabbit and saver. O’Brien’s Exactly and Bedtime Story rate threats yet drew mid-pack and must bridge a 2-lb ratings gap. With Graffard’s fillies operating at a tidy 27 % RTF and Barzalona riding the course brilliantly (30 % Longchamp 2025), Zarigana holds the clearest route to Classic glory.
Scenario Analysis: If rain turns it soft, Bedtime Story—who bolted up on heavy at Ascot—enters the equation, and a searching gallop would test Zarigana’s stamina, bringing Mandanaba’s 9f strength to the fore. Conversely, a dawdle accentuates Zarigana’s lethal kick.
Nap of the Meeting
Out of my analysis for Longchamp’s French Guineas card, Zarigana is the selection I am most confident about.
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 112-1 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 113
TS: 104
RTF’s: 109
Confidence Factors: Unbeaten over course-distance, highest juvenile RPR, ideal middle-low draw, stablemate pace-maker, trainer-jockey 30 % strike at track, market support solidified since declarations, SHAP model ranks draw (32 %), recent TS (28 %) and trainer form (15 %) as top positives.
Race Conditions: The Grande Piste’s sweeping bend and fresh inside rail reward a filly with tactical speed and the ability to quicken—Zarigana’s Prix de la Grotte time-figures show she can idle then burst, precisely mirroring today’s requirements on good-to-soft turf.
**In summary, Zarigana is my Nap of the Meeting — the run-that-wins scenario aligns strongest with the data, making this the day’s standout bet.**
