On a mixed-card Sunday with decent ground in Britain and softening turf at Leopardstown, a handful of marks still look shy of true ability. The best leniency sits at Kempton and in Sedgefield’s staying feature.
Bad — Kempton 15:16
Odds: ~13/8–7/4 (2.63–2.75)
Back to a track he’s 2-from-2 at, Bad looks a few pounds light on his mark. He runs off OR 138 having posted RPR 147 in recent form — a 9lb cushion that suggests the assessor hasn’t fully caught up. Conditions (good, flat run-in) play to his strengths and he meets a small field. Market firms have him favourite on the day.
Fairlawn Flyer — Sedgefield 16:06 (Durham National)
Odds: ~4/1–5/1 (5.0)
A strong staying profile with figures to match. Off OR 121, he has posted RPR 138 — 17lb above today’s mark — across recent chase runs, and arrives in deep form for the Bowens. Proven at extreme trips and with the ground described as good, he shapes like the one still a little ahead of the handicapper at marathon distance. Live shows have him on the second/third line of the market.
Mr Rango — Leopardstown 16:00 (1m2f h’cap)
Odds: ~8/1–10/1 (9.0–11.0)
Back to 1m2f on soft (soft-to-heavy in places), Mr Rango appeals as a quiet improver with figures that say he’s a touch better than OR 74. His recent RPR 78 implies he’s 4lb well in, and this trip arguably suits better than his Curragh spin. With a double-figure quote available this morning, he’s a fair each-way proposition in a big field.
Law Of Supply — Kempton 16:25 (3m h’cap chase)
Odds: ~10/1 (11.0)
Lightly raced over fences and returning at a trip that suits, Law Of Supply lines up from OR 117 yet has posted RPR 126 — 9lb above today’s mark — suggesting there’s wiggle room in his rating. Early tissues had him in the double-figures bracket and several cards note him among the pick of the returners.
Verdict: The most persuasive “miss” is Bad (Kempton 15:16) given the clear 9lb RPR-vs-mark gap and perfect track set-up. For an each-way, Mr Rango (Leopardstown 16:00) makes most sense at the prices under favourable trip and ground.
Prices referenced from public markets; they move and may differ by bookmaker/time.