Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Ladbrokes ‘Gaffer Of All Accas’ Restricted Maiden Stakes (Div I)
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 1:35
First: Magic Box
Age: 2
Weight: 9-2
Form: 6-
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Burns
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 39
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Supreme Dancer
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 8-
Going: Good
Jockey: Oisin Orr
Trainer: Richard Fahey
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 12
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Magic Box has shown strong potential in limited outings and benefits from the expertise of William Haggas. Supreme Dancer has consistent form but may lack the speed to challenge the favorite.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Supreme Dancer could close the gap due to stamina.
Race Name: Ladbrokes ‘Gaffer Of All Accas’ Restricted Maiden Stakes (Div II)
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 2:05
First: Dacres Cross
Age: 2
Weight: 9-7
Form: 5-
Going: Good
Jockey: Kevin Stott
Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Trainer RTF% Form: 63%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 35
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Under The Radar
Age: 2
Weight: 9-5
Form: 4-
Going: Good
Jockey: David Allan
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Trainer RTF% Form: 49%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 37
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Dacres Cross has the highest speed rating in the field, while Under The Radar is a consistent performer. The latter may struggle to match the favorite’s pace.
Scenario Analysis: Heavy ground could favor Under The Radar’s stamina.
Race Name: Ladbrokes Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap
Race Distance: 7f218y
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 2:35
First: Obelix
Age: 5
Weight: 8-7
Form: 5910-4
Going: Good
Jockey: Ryan Sexton
Trainer: Julie Camacho
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: 104
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Our Havana
Age: 4
Weight: 8-13
Form: -16101
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Oisin Orr
Trainer: Richard Fahey
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 92
TS: 79
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Obelix has a strong OR and TS, while Our Havana is improving but may lack consistency.
Scenario Analysis: Soft ground could bring Our Havana into contention.
Race Name: Ladbrokes ‘Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing’ EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 3:15
First: Woroodd
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 3-
Going: Good
Jockey: Paul Mulrennan
Trainer: Ed Walker
Trainer RTF% Form: 52%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 66
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Abloom
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: –
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Burns
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Woroodd has the highest TS, while Abloom is unraced but well-bred.
Scenario Analysis: Faster ground may favor Abloom’s potential.
Here are the remaining race predictions for Thirsk on 3rd May 2025 in the requested format:
Race Name: Ladbrokes ‘Big-Value You Can Bet On’ Handicap
Race Distance: 1m6f
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 3:50
First: Toby Tops
Age: 4
Weight: 9-2
Form: -68611
Going: Good
Jockey: Kevin Stott
Trainer: Dylan Cunha
Trainer RTF% Form: 42%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 62
TS: 22
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Letmeseethecolts
Age: 4
Weight: 9-0
Form: -15321
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Ben Robinson
Trainer: Brian Ellison
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 60
TS: 72
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Toby Tops comes into this race in excellent form with back-to-back wins, while Letmeseethecolts has shown progressive form but may find the extra distance challenging.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens significantly, Savrola could enter calculations with her stamina.
Race Name: Ladbrokes ‘Get Rewarded With Ladbucks’ Handicap
Race Distance: 6f
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 4:23
First: Makanah
Age: 10
Weight: 9-9
Form: 29242-
Going: Good
Jockey: Tom Kiely-Marshall
Trainer: Julie Camacho
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 85
TS: 94
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Kings Merchant
Age: 4
Weight: 9-8
Form: 1215-7
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
Trainer: Edward Bethell
Trainer RTF% Form: 73%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 84
TS: 83
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Makanah’s experience and consistent speed figures make him the one to beat, while Kings Merchant has potential but needs to bounce back from a poor last run.
Scenario Analysis: Any significant rain would bring Imperial Guard into contention given his strong soft ground form.
Race Name: Ladbrokes ‘Boost Your Bet Builder’ Sprint Handicap
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 4:55
First: Lethal Nymph
Age: 6
Weight: 8-13
Form: 30-632
Going: Good
Jockey: Oisin Orr
Trainer: Paul Midgley
Trainer RTF% Form: 21%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 80
TS: 90
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Mon Na Slieve
Age: 4
Weight: 9-1
Form: -47814
Going: Good to Firm
Jockey: Shane Gray
Trainer: Kevin Ryan
Trainer RTF% Form: 63%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 82
TS: 93
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Lethal Nymph has been consistent recently and gets weight relief, while Mon Na Slieve has higher speed figures but is less reliable.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground becomes very fast, Alligator Alley could outrun his odds with his proven record on firm surfaces.
Race Name: Ladbrokes ‘Play 1-2-Free On Football’ Handicap
Race Distance: 7f218y
Racecourse: Thirsk
Time of Race: 5:30
First: Jez Bomb
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 16-521
Going: Good
Jockey: Shane Gray
Trainer: Sam England
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 67
TS: 65
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Cosmos Raj
Age: 7
Weight: 9-8
Form: -07322
Going: Good to Soft
Jockey: David Nolan
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF% Form: 49%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 69
TS: 65
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Jez Bomb has been progressive this season and handles the distance well, while Cosmos Raj is consistent but may find one too good again.
Scenario Analysis: Any significant rain would bring Mount King into the equation given his excellent soft ground form.
Best Value Selection Summary:
For the best value selection based purely on performance metrics at Thirsk on 3rd May 2025, we recommend:
Race Name: Ladbrokes Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap
Horse: Obelix
Age: 5
Weight: 8-7
Form: 5910-4 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 86
TS: 104
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Obelix has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making him a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit him, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Obelix presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds. His combination of strong speed figures, progressive form, and ideal race conditions make him stand out from the rest of the card.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Thirsk – 03rd May 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
13:35 – Ladbrokes ‘Gaffer Of All Accas’ Restricted Maiden Stakes (Div I)
- Magic Box (Probability: 85%)
- Believeinmenow (Probability: 70%) [Flagged: <80%]
14:05 – Ladbrokes ‘Gaffer Of All Accas’ Restricted Maiden Stakes (Div II)
- Under The Radar (Probability: 80%)
- Dacres Cross (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
15:15 – Ladbrokes ‘Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing’ EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes
- Woroodd (Probability: 80%)
- Abloom (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
16:55 – Ladbrokes ‘Boost Your Bet Builder’ Sprint Handicap
- Lethal Nymph (Probability: 85%)
- Sommelier (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Magic Box (13:35, Thirsk, 85%)
- Under The Radar (14:05, Thirsk, 80%)
- Woroodd (15:15, Thirsk, 80%)
- Lethal Nymph (16:55, Thirsk, 85%)
Note: All selections meet the ≥80% confidence threshold.
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Magic Box (13:35, Thirsk)
- Under The Radar (14:05, Thirsk)
- Woroodd (15:15, Thirsk)
- Lethal Nymph (16:55, Thirsk)
Doubles
- Magic Box + Under The Radar
- Magic Box + Woroodd
- Magic Box + Lethal Nymph
- Under The Radar + Woroodd
- Under The Radar + Lethal Nymph
- Woroodd + Lethal Nymph
Trebles
- Magic Box + Under The Radar + Woroodd
- Magic Box + Under The Radar + Lethal Nymph
- Magic Box + Woroodd + Lethal Nymph
- Under The Radar + Woroodd + Lethal Nymph
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Magic Box + Under The Radar + Woroodd + Lethal Nymph
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Under The Radar (80%) –
- Highest Probability: Magic Box (85%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Dacres Cross (75%) –
