Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

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Race Name: Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Tipperary
Time of Race: 3:52
First: Sup Of Red
Age: 2
Weight: 8-11
Form: 2 (Strong debut, close second)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: James Ryan
Trainer: Jack W Davison
Trainer RTF% Form: 25%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 90
TS: 28
Probability: High

Second: Noodles
Age: 2
Weight: 9-0
Form: 3 (Promising third on debut)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Ronan Whelan
Trainer: John S O’Donoghue
Trainer RTF% Form: 30%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 91
TS: 55
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Sup Of Red showed strong potential on debut, finishing a close second with a high OR of 90, indicating quality. The yielding to soft ground suits her, as her debut was on similar conditions. James Ryan’s experience complements her speed, and Jack W Davison’s stable is in decent form. Noodles, with a third-place finish on debut, has a solid TS of 55 and benefits from Ronan Whelan’s expertise. Her OR of 91 suggests she’s competitive, but Sup Of Red’s form and consistency give her the edge. The short 5f distance favors both horses’ speed profiles, but Sup Of Red’s higher probability stems from her proven ability to challenge for the lead.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground turns heavier due to rain, Sup Of Red’s adaptability to soft conditions gives her an advantage. On firmer ground, Noodles could close the gap with her higher TS.

Race Name: Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Tipperary
Time of Race: 4:25
First: Passing Phase
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 3622-3 (Consistent placer)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Shane Foley
Trainer: Mrs John Harrington
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 84
TS: 71
Probability: Very High

Second: Lil’ Angel
Age: 3
Weight: 9-3
Form: Unraced (Promising trials)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Colin Keane
Trainer: G M Lyons
Trainer RTF% Form: 80%
RTF’s: Unknown
OR: –
TS: –
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Passing Phase has a proven track record, with multiple placed finishes and an OR of 84, making her a standout in this maiden. Her TS of 71 and Shane Foley’s booking enhance her chances, especially on yielding to soft ground where she’s performed well. Mrs John Harrington’s stable is in top form, boosting confidence. Lil’ Angel, unraced but with strong trial reports, benefits from Colin Keane and G M Lyons’ high RTF%. Without public form, her probability is lower, but her trainer’s success with debutants makes her a threat. The 5f sprint suits Passing Phase’s speed, while Lil’ Angel’s potential could shine if she handles the ground.
Scenario Analysis: Heavy rain would favor Passing Phase’s experience on soft ground. If the ground firms up, Lil’ Angel’s unknown adaptability could make her competitive.

Race Name: Follow @ tipperaryraces Handicap
Race Distance: 5f
Racecourse: Tipperary
Time of Race: 5:00
First: Tomarlo
Age: 3
Weight: 9-12
Form: 0412-2 (Recent strong form)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Luke McAteer
Trainer: David Marnane
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 67
TS: 37
Probability: High

Second: Raising The Flag
Age: 3
Weight: 9-5
Form: 960- (Improving in training)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: W J Lee
Trainer: M C Grassick
Trainer RTF% Form: 33%
RTF’s: Limited
OR: 60
TS: 55
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Tomarlo’s recent form, including a win and consistent placed finishes, makes him the one to beat. His OR of 67 and TS of 37 are competitive, and Luke McAteer’s familiarity with the horse is a plus. David Marnane’s stable form supports his chances on yielding to soft ground. Raising The Flag, with a lower OR of 60, has shown improvement in training, and W J Lee’s booking is significant. Her TS of 55 suggests speed, but limited recent form lowers her probability. The 5f distance suits both, but Tomarlo’s proven consistency gives him the edge.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground enhances Tomarlo’s chances due to his form on similar conditions. Firmer ground could boost Raising The Flag’s speed advantage.

Race Name: Racing Again At Tipperary On May 8th Race
Race Distance: 7f100y
Racecourse: Tipperary
Time of Race: 5:32
First: Kortez Bay
Age: 4
Weight: 9-11
Form: 0140-2 (Strong return)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Gary Carroll
Trainer: Ms Sheila Lavery
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 106
TS: 85
Probability: High

Second: Hurricane Ivor
Age: 8
Weight: 9-7
Form: 206-14 (Recent winner)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Shane Foley
Trainer: Mrs John Harrington
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 105
TS: 69
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Kortez Bay’s high OR of 106 and recent second-place finish on return make him a strong contender. His TS of 85 and Gary Carroll’s booking align with Ms Sheila Lavery’s solid form. The 7f100y distance suits his stamina, and he’s proven on yielding to soft ground. Hurricane Ivor, a recent winner with an OR of 105, is a threat, especially with Shane Foley and Mrs John Harrington’s high RTF%. His TS of 69 is slightly lower, but his experience keeps him competitive. Kortez Bay’s younger age and form edge him ahead.
Scenario Analysis: Heavy rain favors Kortez Bay’s adaptability to softer ground. Firmer conditions could see Hurricane Ivor’s experience shine.

Race Name: Tipperary Handicap
Race Distance: 1m1f
Racecourse: Tipperary
Time of Race: 6:02
First: Movin And Groovin
Age: 3
Weight: 9-7
Form: 2-1363 (Consistent performer)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Adam Caffrey
Trainer: Adrian McGuinness
Trainer RTF% Form: 53%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 55
TS: 46
Probability: High

Second: Onemoredance
Age: 3
Weight: 9-10
Form: 088-8 (Signs of improvement)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Ben Coen
Trainer: J P Murtagh
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Limited
OR: 58
TS: 20
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Movin And Groovin’s consistent form, including a win and recent placed finishes, makes her a top pick. Her OR of 55 and TS of 46 are solid for this grade, and Adam Caffrey’s claim helps. Adrian McGuinness’s stable is in form, and the 1m1f suits her stamina. Onemoredance, with an OR of 58, showed signs of progress last time out, and Ben Coen’s booking for J P Murtagh is a positive. Her lower TS of 20 and less consistent form reduce her probability, but she’s a danger. The yielding to soft ground favors both, but Movin And Groovin’s reliability stands out.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground boosts Movin And Groovin’s chances due to her form. Firmer ground could help Onemoredance if she builds on her recent run.

Race Name: Tipperary Town Maiden
Race Distance: 1m4f100y
Racecourse: Tipperary
Time of Race: 6:32
First: Treasure Planet
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 4 (Promising debut)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Gavin Ryan
Trainer: Donnacha Aidan O’Brien
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 86
TS: 57
Probability: Very High

Second: Keyboard
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 75 (Improving)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Declan McDonogh
Trainer: J S Bolger
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Limited
OR: 90
TS: 42
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Treasure Planet’s debut fourth was full of promise, with an OR of 86 and TS of 57 indicating potential. Gavin Ryan and Donnacha Aidan O’Brien’s stable form add confidence, and the 1m4f100y suits his staying ability on yielding to soft ground. Keyboard, with an OR of 90, has shown improvement, but her TS of 42 and less convincing form lower her chances. Declan McDonogh and J S Bolger’s high RTF% keep her in contention, but Treasure Planet’s upside makes him the clear favorite.
Scenario Analysis: Heavy rain favors Treasure Planet’s stamina. Firmer ground could see Keyboard’s speed improve her placing.

Race Name: TipperaryRacecourse.ie Handicap
Race Distance: 1m4f100y
Racecourse: Tipperary
Time of Race: 7:02
First: Ard Na Mara
Age: 4
Weight: 8-11
Form: 2164-2 (Strong recent form)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Declan McDonogh
Trainer: J S Bolger
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 73
TS: 84
Probability: High

Second: Cheeky Wink
Age: 4
Weight: 9-9
Form: 5742-3 (Consistent)
Going: Yielding to Soft
Jockey: Ben Coen
Trainer: J P Murtagh
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 85
TS: 70
Probability: Moderate
Analysis: Ard Na Mara’s recent second and OR of 73, combined with a high TS of 84, make her a strong contender. Declan McDonogh’s experience and J S Bolger’s form are significant, and the 1m4f100y on yielding to soft ground suits her. Cheeky Wink, with an OR of 85, has been consistent, and Ben Coen’s booking for J P Murtagh is a plus. Her TS of 70 is solid, but Ard Na Mara’s recent form and ground suitability give her the edge. The distance favors both, but Ard Na Mara’s momentum stands out.
Scenario Analysis: Softer ground enhances Ard Na Mara’s chances. Firmer conditions could see Cheeky Wink’s consistency pay off.

Best Value for Money Horse at Tipperary on 24th April 2025

Out of my analysis for Tipperary, Treasure Planet shows the best value for money based on performance metrics:
Age: 3
Weight: 9-8
Form: 4 (Promising debut)
OR: 86
TS: 57
RTF’s: Ran To Form

Form and Improvement: Treasure Planet’s debut fourth was encouraging, showing stamina and potential over longer distances. His OR of 86 and TS of 57 are competitive, and his trainer, Donnacha Aidan O’Brien, has a strong track record with young stayers. The 1m4f100y distance is ideal for his pedigree, and his ability to handle yielding to soft ground adds to his appeal.

Race Conditions: The yielding to soft ground at Tipperary suits Treasure Planet, as his debut was on similar conditions. Gavin Ryan’s booking and the trainer’s 56% RTF% suggest he’s well-prepared, and his metrics indicate room for improvement, making him a standout in the Tipperary Town Maiden.

In summary, Treasure Planet presents the best value for money, offering a strong balance of high performance metrics (OR, TS, form) and potential for improvement, despite not being the shortest-priced favorite. His suitability to the race conditions and trainer form make him a compelling choice based purely on data.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Tipperary – 24th April 2025

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

15:52 – Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (2yo, 5f)

• Sup Of Red (Probability: 80%)
• Noodles (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

16:25 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden (3yo+, 5f)

• Passing Phase (Probability: 85%)
• Lil’ Angel (Probability: 80%)

17:00 – Follow @TipperaryRaces Handicap (3yo, 5f)

• Tomarlo (Probability: 90%)
• Sarahmae (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

17:32 – Racing Again At Tipperary On May 8th Race (4yo+, 7f 100y)

• Kortez Bay (Probability: 80%)
• Hurricane Ivor (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

18:02 – Tipperary Handicap (3yo, 1m 1f)

• Onemoredance (Probability: 85%)
• Letters Of Love (Probability: 80%)

18:32 – Tipperary Town Maiden (3yo, 1m 4f 100y)

• Treasure Planet (Probability: 85%)
• Sears Crossing (Probability: 80%)

19:02 – TipperaryRacecourse.ie Handicap (3yo+, 1m 4f 100y)

• Ard Na Mara (Probability: 80%)
• Cheeky Wink (Probability: 75%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Tomarlo (17:00, Tipperary, 90%)
2. Passing Phase (16:25, Tipperary, 85%)
3. Treasure Planet (18:32, Tipperary, 85%)
4. Onemoredance (18:02, Tipperary, 85%)

Note: All selections meet the ≥80% threshold.

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Tomarlo (17:00, Tipperary)
2. Passing Phase (16:25, Tipperary)
3. Treasure Planet (18:32, Tipperary)
4. Onemoredance (18:02, Tipperary)

Doubles

1. Tomarlo + Passing Phase
2. Tomarlo + Treasure Planet
3. Tomarlo + Onemoredance
4. Passing Phase + Treasure Planet
5. Passing Phase + Onemoredance
6. Treasure Planet + Onemoredance

Trebles

1. Tomarlo + Passing Phase + Treasure Planet
2. Tomarlo + Passing Phase + Onemoredance
3. Tomarlo + Treasure Planet + Onemoredance
4. Passing Phase + Treasure Planet + Onemoredance

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Tomarlo + Passing Phase + Treasure Planet + Onemoredance

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Treasure Planet (85%) –
• Highest Probability: Tomarlo (90%) –
• Alternative if Needed: Kortez Bay (80%) –