How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20% but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners, and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – Tramore 17/08/25
#9 World Of Fortunes (Form: 14618-)
Listed hurdles winner stepping into a mares beginners’ chase; class edge with suitable trip and ground; primary trust if jumping holds.
Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle (4yo+)
#5 Bold Fury (Form: 212-32)
Sets the hurdles form standard and rates a solid benchmark; narrow value but reliability keeps him prominent.
#1 Cosmos d’Ainay (Form: 1C3-19)
Bumper form reads best against these and market underestimates chance relative to normalized probability.
#9 Tricksofthetrade (Form: 423-43)
Consistent profile and strong yard; capable of filling the frame behind principals.
Pick: Win — #1 Cosmos d’Ainay
Frank Gillane Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0–100)
#2 May Call You Back (Form: 16-114)
Thriving since yard switch; ticks the value and probability thresholds with a favorable setup.
#14 Surviving Murmansk (Form: 446642)
Consistent handicapping efforts and model-friendly price; strong place chance with upside.
#8 Menas Miracle (Form: 40-214)
Upward curve in recent starts; reliable for minor money if pace is honest.
Pick: Win — #2 May Call You Back
Frank King Memorial Maiden Hurdle (4yo+)
#6 Full Of Life (Form: /243P-)
Top on ratings; fitness query after break but retains the best form claims at the trip.
#4 The Monkey Pole (Form: PP-2)
Wexford second reads well; recent run advantage and progressive profile make him a big threat.
#2 March On Dave (Form: F356)
Has shaped with ability; can sit handy and stick on for a placing.
Pick: E/W — #4 The Monkey Pole
Victoria House Tramore Mares Beginners Chase (4yo+)
#9 World Of Fortunes (Form: 14618-)
Class act of the race as a Listed winner over hurdles; if slick at fences, she should outclass these.
#1 Cobra Queen (Form: 400-32)
Reliable mare with solid chase profile; rates the main threat with scope to improve.
#3 Costanuci (Form: 233-34)
Consistent type who should run her race; likely a place player behind the top pair.
Pick: Win — #9 World Of Fortunes
McCarthy’s Irish Bar Lexington Handicap Chase (5yo+)
#2 The Dasher Conway (Form: 0-9535)
Back to a more suitable grade and track; model fav on consistency and handicapping mark.
#4 Tullyveery Lad (Form: 65-742)
Holding form and effective at the trip; clear place candidate.
#7 Hand Over Fist (Form: 7-6555)
Solid on recent figures; capable of running into the money with a clean round.
Pick: Win — #2 The Dasher Conway
Heinz Pollmeier Memorial Handicap Chase (0–100)
#1 Lady Rose Hackett (Form: 2408-4)
Point winner with scope; expected to improve for fences and represents value at current odds.
#2 Itsalonglongroad (Form: 535-52)
Ultra-consistent veteran and course specialist; profile fits for a bold show.
#5 Onebrightbluerose (Form: 2D73535)
Reliable handicapper who holds his form; shape of race should suit for a placing.
Pick: Win — #1 Lady Rose Hackett
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares INH Flat Race (4yo+)
#3 La Confiner
Debutant from a powerful yard; sets the standard on paper against modest known form.
#4 Run For Mahler (Form: 52)
Race experience is a plus and recent figure is competitive; fair odds against the fav.
#6 Something Fabulous (Form: 27)
Capable yard; fair underlying figure and could step forward to grab a place.
Pick: Win — #3 La Confiner
Notes
Top Jockey = From our list of top jockeys.
Overround pill colours: 100–115% (green) 116–117% (orange) 118%+ (red)
Implied Probability (IP) is based on bookmaker odds. Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales runners to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair