Professional Gamblers Benchmarks

Why Bet Smart & Win Works

We price races like a market maker: adjust for overround, calibrate probabilities (NP) to outcomes, then bet when market price exceeds our fair line. That discipline — plus filtering by class, field size and book overround — creates a repeatable edge.

With +70.9% ROI vs a +5–10% pro benchmark, September’s Silver Tier results reflect smart selection, not luck — driven by AF value, optimal 2.0–5.0 odds bands, and sub-110% books.

Outcome Mix

Overall Performance

• Total Bets: 100
• Winners: 23
• Placed (excl. wins): 39
• Lost: 38
• Win SR: 22.9%
• Place SR: 39.0%
• Combined SR: 61.9%
• Profit: +70.9 pts
• ROI: +70.9%
• Longest Winning Streak: 3
• Longest Losing Streak: 3

Strong month: 6 of 10 selection filters positive; consistency above professional benchmarks.

Value Flag Breakdown

• Above Fair (AF): ROI +78%, Win SR 26%
• Fair (F): ROI +32%, Win SR 19%
• Below Fair (BF): ROI +12%, Win SR 22%

AF remains the standout. F and BF turn positive once fixed-odds place terms are included.

Overround Bands

• 100–105%: ROI +92%
• 106–110%: ROI +95%
• 111–115%: ROI +56%
• ≥116%: ROI +12%

Sub-110% books are the prime profit zone. High overrounds erode value and SR.

Class Analysis

• Class 1–3: ROI +73%, Win SR 29%
• Class 4–5: ROI +54%, Win SR 21%
• Class 6: ROI –20%, Win SR 0%

Exclude Class 6 to lift ROI and stability.

Field Size Performance

• 5–6 runners: ROI +41%
• 7–9 runners: ROI +63%
• 10–12 runners: ROI +72%
• 13+ runners: ROI +28%

8–12 runner window is the consistency sweet spot.

Odds Band Analysis

• ≤ 2.0 (short): ROI +31%, Win SR 39%
• 2.01–3.0 (low/mid): ROI +58%, Win SR 29%
• 3.01–5.0 (mid): ROI +66%, Win SR 22%
• > 5.0 (longshots): ROI +42%, Win SR 12%

Mid-range odds (2.0–5.0) delivered the best balance of SR and profit.

Favourites vs Non-Favourites

• Favourites: ROI +47%, Win SR 36%
• Non-Favourites: ROI +66%, Win SR 18%

AF-flagged non-favourites provided the biggest ROI lift.

Jockey ROI Leaders

• Billy Loughnane: 4 wins, 5 places — standout profitability
• Sean Bowen: 3 wins, 5 places — profitable but volatile
• Tom Marquand: 2 wins, 4 places — consistent
• Colin Keane: 2 wins, 5 places — under on wins, strong place record

Day-of-Week Bias

• Strongest Days: Tuesday, Thursday, Friday
• Weekends: Still profitable, higher variance

Calibration (NP vs Actual)

• 20–24% NP: Actual Win 22%
• 25–26% NP: Actual Win 24%
• 27–29% NP: Actual Win 28%
• 30–34% NP: Actual Win 30%
• 35%+ NP: Actual Win 34%

Calibration is tight — especially in the 27–34% NP band where profits cluster.

Summary

September closed at +70.9% ROI on the Silver Tier sample — around 6–12× typical professional benchmarks (+5% to +10%). The edge is systematic: AF value, optimal overround bands (<110%), and mid-range odds (2.0–5.0) combine with well-calibrated probabilities.

Bottom line: smart selection, not luck, drives sustainable growth. Bet Smart & Win continues to outperform by treating betting as a pricing problem — and winning where price disagrees with probability.