Bet Smart & Win
Uttoxeter — Thu 11/09/25
Races: 6 (1–6)
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
How To Pick Winners
We only place bets when a race meets the following criteria:
- Overround: Between 100–115% (Green)
- Runners: Between 8–12
- Value: Above Fair (Green)
- Class: 5, 4, 3
- Jockey: Top 20 (strict whitelist)
- NP: 27% or Above
- IP: Below the NP (Normalised Probability)
- Best days to bet: Wed, Thu, Fri, Sat (statistically strongest)
Uttoxeter 11/09/25 — NAP
NAP#7 Liverpool Knight (Form: 35-442)
J: Jonathan Burke
NP: 30%
IP: 14%
Details
Why this is the NAP
- Consistent in 0–130; trip/ground optimal; NP>IP value gap.
- Qualifies on overround, class, field size and whitelist jockey.
- Tactical versatility suits Uttoxeter; stable in form.
1
16:30 Uttoxeter — QuinnBet Maiden Hurdle (GBB) — 2m7f70y
#5 Betty’s Tiara (Form: 30-222)
J: Callum Pritchard (5)
NP: 31%
IP: 36%
Details
Notes
- Reliable placer; sets a clear small-field standard.
- Price a shade tight; high probability to finish 1–2.
- Prominent ride should suit the tempo on Good ground.
#2 De Temps En Temps (Form: 214-34)
J: Sean Bowen
NP: 33%
IP: 36%
Details
Notes
- Placed form reads well; stamina test manageable at this pace.
- Fair but fractionally overbet; strong win/place probability.
- Whitelist jockey boosts efficiency around Uttoxeter.
#3 Fairlawn Skipper (Form: 3-12)
J: Shane Fenelon (5)
NP: 23%
IP: 27%
Details
Notes
- Bumper winner; scope switching to hurdles over a stayers’ trip.
- Fair zone; place claims if jumping holds.
- Likely to track leaders and keep on.
2
17:05 Uttoxeter — Cambion Cardiac Risk In The Young Charity H’cap Chase — 1m7f214y
#2 Dexter (Form: 3P-231)
J: Henry Brooke
NP: 30%
IP: 29%
Details
Why qualifies
- Form boosted by clear-margin finish; 5lb rise fair.
- NP ≥ 27 and IP < NP; Overround 114%; field 9; Class 5.
- SecEff strong for a sharp 2m; prominent ride suits.
#1 En Avant (Form: 1180/3)
J: Sean Bowen
NP: 26%
IP: 29%
Details
Notes
- Capable profile; fitter for comeback; big player if jumping slick.
- Value tight; still a prime 1–2 projection.
- Top connection in this grade; danger to the selection.
#3 Impression Chic (Form: 22/3-2)
J: Charlie Price (3)
NP: 18%
IP: 20%
Details
Notes
- Consistent and aided by a smart 3lb claim; strong place angle.
- Fair at tissue; can pick up pieces late.
- Race shape could set up the finish.
3
17:35 Uttoxeter — Interlink Talent Solutions H’cap Chase (GBB) — 3m10y
#10 Carriglux (Form: S21-53)
J: Jamie Hamilton
NP: 29%
IP: 20%
Details
Why not qualified
#4 Wheresmemoneygone (Form: 331-12)
J: Ben Jones
NP: 28%
IP: 43%
Details
Notes
- Improving but priced aggressively by market.
- Below Fair vs NP; still a key contender.
- Likely 1–2 with clean jumping.
#6 Leading Force (Form: 1F2263)
J: Sean Bowen
NP: 17%
IP: 20%
Details
Notes
- Honest stayer; rider booking a plus; grinding style fits track.
- Fair price; potential late drift improves edge.
- Frame claims if tempo even.
4
18:05 Uttoxeter — Cambion Electronics Limited H’cap Hurdle (0–130) — 2m3f207y
#7 Liverpool Knight (Form: 35-442)
J: Jonathan Burke
NP: 30%
IP: 14%
Details
Why qualifies
- NP comfortably exceeds IP; ideal race conditions and class.
- Within qualifying overround and field size; whitelist jockey.
- Profiles to sit handy and finish strongest.
#3 Icare Allen (Form: 0-2601)
J: Benjamin Macey (7)
NP: 28%
IP: 22%
Details
Notes
- Claim offsets burden; retains competitiveness after win.
- Fair value; minor regression risk priced in.
- Strong chance to be in the mix again.
#6 My Chiquita (Form: /421-2)
J: Jack Quinlan
NP: 22%
IP: 22%
Details
Notes
- Lightly raced; improvement likely second-up.
- Fair pricing; could shorten on the day.
- Should be finishing off strongly.
5
18:35 Uttoxeter — Interlink Talent Solutions Mares’ H’cap Hurdle (0–100) — 2m3f207y
#9 Chosen Bae (Form: P/801-)
J: Dylan Johnston (3)
NP: 28%
IP: 22%
Details
Why qualifies
- Unexposed; returns after a win; 3lb claim valuable.
- NP ≥ 27 and IP < NP inside a 115% book; field size 11; Class 5.
- Pace versatile; strong win/place profile.
#1 Queens Wish (Form: 137-33)
J: James Bowen
NP: 27%
IP: 22%
Details
Why qualifies
- Consistent mare; class edge at this level; back up in trip helps.
- Meets NP/IP threshold; class and field filters satisfied.
- Whitelist jockey; reliable frame claims.
#7 Shesupincourt (Form: 31242-)
J: Ben Poste
NP: 20%
IP: 10%
Details
Why not qualified
6
19:05 Uttoxeter — Cambion, Jewel In The Peaks H’cap Hurdle (0–100) — 2m7f70y
#3 Scudamore (Form: 27/5-F)
J: Sean Quinlan
NP: 28%
IP: 22%
Details
Why not qualified
#1 Tropical Speed (Form: -36333)
J: Sean Bowen
NP: 27%
IP: 17%
Details
Why not qualified
#8 Hammer Dan (Form: 11-223)
J: Jack Tudor
NP: 19%
IP: 14%
Details
Why not qualified
Probability & Value — Read This
Legend — What the Colours Mean
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Above Fair (AF)
Value positive
Our target condition when NP > IP.
-
Fair (F)
Neutral value
Priced about right; marginal edge.
-
Below Fair (BF)
Value negative
Overbet relative to model.
-
Overround — Green
100–115%
Our qualifying book range.
-
Overround — Red
116%+
Book too fat; approach cautiously.
-
Implied Prob.
From odds
Raw probability from bookmaker prices.
-
Normalized Prob.
Margin-free
Re-scales market to 100% total.
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Class
Race grade
Target Classes: 5, 4, 3.
-
Runners
Field size
We want 8–12 to qualify.
-
Jockey
Whitelist
Only shortlist riders pass the strict filter.