Bet Smart & Win — Wetherby Race Preview
Saturday 1 November 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
We focus on Overround, Normalized Probability (NP), Implied Probability (IP), Value classification, and field/race conditions to surface bets the layers hope you miss. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Harry Derham
- Trip: 2m (Hurdle)
- Trainer RTF%: 86%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Top selection on trainer form and profile. NP comfortably ahead of IP — class angle.
Details
- J: Brian Hughes
- T: Patrick Neville
- Trip: 2m (Hurdle)
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Solid jumper with recent win; NP above IP indicates small edge.
Details
- J: Jack Andrews
- T: Pam Sly
- Trip: 2m (Hurdle)
- Trainer RTF%: 3%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Value type: NP exceeds IP despite modest RTF — can outrun odds.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 2m3f85y (Chase)
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Clear form pick and likeliest winner; NP > IP confirms the model’s view.
Details
- J: Richie McLernon
- T: L J Morgan
- Trip: 2m3f85y (Chase)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Each-way value on conditions — model keeps him onside despite low RTF.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: Billy Aprahamian
- Trip: 2m3f85y (Chase)
- Trainer RTF%: 38%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Consistent and well-handicapped; fits our probability/value alignment.
Details
- J: Lorcan Williams
- T: Jeremy Scott
- Trip: 2m (Hurdle)
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Standout on form; NP comfortably ahead of IP — model’s clear #1.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 2m (Hurdle)
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 107%
Analysis
Only danger; model still tilts to Golden Ace on current ratings.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 3m26y (Hurdle)
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Grade 2 form; NP > IP; overround inside tolerance — qualifies as top selection.
Details
- J: Sam Twiston-Davies
- T: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
- Trip: 3m26y (Hurdle)
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Comes here after a win; NP > IP gives a small but real edge.
Details
- J: Harry Skelton
- T: Dan Skelton
- Trip: 3m26y (Hurdle)
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Big yard’s second wave; fits within NP/IP/value rules.
Details
- J: Charlie Deutsch
- T: Venetia Williams
- Trip: 3m45y (Chase)
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
High-class form and 100% RTF — model’s selection.
Details
- J: Gavin Sheehan
- T: John Joseph Hanlon
- Trip: 3m45y (Chase)
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Popular, gutsy; NP above IP in a tight Grade 2 — stays in top 3.
Details
- J: Harry Cobden
- T: Paul Nicholls
- Trip: 3m45y (Chase)
- Trainer RTF%: 70%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent Grade 2 performer; model keeps him firmly in the frame.
Details
- J: Tom Bellamy
- T: Alan King
- Trip: 2m (Hurdle)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Unexposed, handicap debut, meets model’s ideal class/runner setup — clear pick.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 2m (Hurdle)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Key danger if reproducing best hurdle form; NP > IP keeps him in.
Details
- J: Jonathan England
- T: Sam England
- Trip: 2m (Hurdle)
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Yard in form, NP just ahead of IP — valid each-way.
Details
- J: Charlie Maggs
- T: Fiona Needham
- Trip: 3m45y (Chase)
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Arrives in top form; NP well clear of IP — model’s clear #1 in the finale.
Details
- J: Peter Kavanagh
- T: Peter Atkinson
- Trip: 3m45y (Chase)
- Trainer RTF%: 0%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Consistent handicapper; NP just ahead of IP — stays in shortlist.
Details
- J: Sean Bowen
- T: Olly Murphy
- Trip: 3m45y (Chase)
- Trainer RTF%: 73%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Dangerous if bouncing back — NP/IP/value combo justifies inclusion.
Analysis
Unexposed, handicap debut, model’s ideal race profile (Class 3, 8 runners, Overround 112%, NP 24% > IP 22%). This is the “run-that-wins” scenario. Back with confidence.