Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.
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Race Name: Vertu Mazda York Fillies’ Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Wetherby
Time of Race: 2:00
First: Clermont Ferrand
Age: 4
Weight: 10-2
Form: 22 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good
Jockey: Jack Mitchell
Trainer: Harry Charlton
Trainer RTF% Form: 56%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 69
TS: 83
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Regal Agenda
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 52-4 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to firm in places
Jockey: Shane Gray
Trainer: K R Burke
Trainer RTF% Form: 54%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 80
TS: 81
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Clermont Ferrand has the highest official rating (OR) and top speed (TS) in this field, with strong recent form. Regal Agenda is a solid contender but may struggle to match the favorite’s class.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Regal Agenda’s stamina could come into play, but Clermont Ferrand’s superior speed should prevail on good ground.
Race Name: National Festival Circus Here Today Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 1m2f
Racecourse: Wetherby
Time of Race: 2:30
First: Coma Cluster
Age: 3
Weight: 8-10
Form: 847-2 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
Going: Good
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: George Boughey
Trainer RTF% Form: 40%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 71
TS: 83
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Cymbidium
Age: 3
Weight: 8-12
Form: 81472 (Consistent performances)
Going: Good to firm in places
Jockey: Jason Watson
Trainer: David O’Meara
Trainer RTF% Form: 44%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 73
TS: 78
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Coma Cluster has shown rapid improvement and is well-weighted. Cymbidium is consistent but may lack the finishing kick to challenge the favorite.
Scenario Analysis: If the pace is strong early, Cymbidium’s stamina could be an asset, but Coma Cluster’s tactical speed should dominate.
Race Name: Bet With The On-Course Bookmakers Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Wetherby
Time of Race: 3:00
First: Gloriously Sassy
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 43 (Strong debut)
Going: Good
Jockey: Shane Gray
Trainer: K R Burke
Trainer RTF% Form: 54%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 62
TS: 79
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Arabian Force
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: 6 (Needs improvement)
Going: Good to firm in places
Jockey: Cieren Fallon
Trainer: William Haggas
Trainer RTF% Form: 62%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: –
TS: 64
Probability: Second Horse Low
Analysis: Gloriously Sassy has the highest TS and a strong trainer/jockey combo. Arabian Force is unproven but could improve.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground softens, Arabian Force’s breeding may help, but Gloriously Sassy’s speed is superior.
Race Name: Lives Streams On Racing TV Extra Handicap
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Wetherby
Time of Race: 3:30
First: Stratocracy
Age: 4
Weight: 9-6
Form: 1451-3 (Progressive profile)
Going: Good
Jockey: William Pyle
Trainer: Kevin Frost
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 69
TS: 82
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Paris Lights
Age: 6
Weight: 9-6
Form: 1-5262 (Consistent)
Going: Good to firm in places
Jockey: David Nolan
Trainer: Paul Midgley
Trainer RTF% Form: 26%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 69
TS: 83
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Stratocracy is improving rapidly and handles the trip well. Paris Lights is battle-hardened but may lack the turn of foot needed to win.
Scenario Analysis: If the race becomes tactical, Paris Lights’ experience could prove vital, but Stratocracy’s upward trajectory makes him the one to beat.
Race Name: Constant Security Services Fillies’ Handicap
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Wetherby
Time of Race: 4:00
First: Manila Thriller
Age: 3
Weight: 8-10
Form: 2893-1 (Strong closing effort last time)
Going: Good
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer: Jack Channon
Trainer RTF% Form: 73%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 73
TS: 87
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Never Let Go
Age: 3
Weight: 8-13
Form: 61- (Promising)
Going: Good to firm in places
Jockey: George Downing
Trainer: Ed Walker
Trainer RTF% Form: 50%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 76
TS: 84
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Manila Thriller boasts the highest TS in the field and has race fitness on her side. Never Let Go is unexposed but may need further.
Scenario Analysis: A strongly run race would suit Manila Thriller’s finishing kick, while Never Let Go could threaten if allowed an easy lead.
Race Name: It’s Ladies’ Night On 2nd June Handicap
Race Distance: 5f110y
Racecourse: Wetherby
Time of Race: 4:30
First: First Company
Age: 7
Weight: 9-4
Form: 29-543 (Drops in class)
Going: Good
Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Trainer: Mark Loughnane
Trainer RTF% Form: 57%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 64
TS: 83
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Dark Kestrel
Age: 5
Weight: 9-7
Form: 454234 (Consistent)
Going: Good to firm in places
Jockey: Cam Hardie
Trainer: Antony Brittain
Trainer RTF% Form: 33%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 67
TS: 82
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: First Company is class-dropping and has winning form over C&D. Dark Kestrel is reliable but often finds one too good.
Scenario Analysis: If the ground dries further, Dark Kestrel’s stamina will be tested, whereas First Company’s tactical speed is versatile.
Race Name: Royal Pigeon Association Handicap
Race Distance: 1m
Racecourse: Wetherby
Time of Race: 5:00
First: Zappata
Age: 3
Weight: 9-0
Form: 7562 (Progressive)
Going: Good
Jockey: Darragh Keenan
Trainer: George Scott
Trainer RTF% Form: 15%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 46
TS: 66
Probability: First Horse High
Second: Cuda Been A Rowlex
Age: 3
Weight: 9-2
Form: -05551 (In form)
Going: Good to firm in places
Jockey: Connor Beasley
Trainer: Roger Fell
Trainer RTF% Form: 18%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 48
TS: 63
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Zappata is unexposed and open to improvement. Cuda Been A Rowlex is consistent but may lack the class to win.
Scenario Analysis: A slow pace would hinder Zappata’s finishing burst, but his ability to stay the trip is a key asset.
Race Name: Book Tickets Online At wetherbyracing.co.uk Handicap
Race Distance: 7f
Racecourse: Wetherby
Time of Race: 5:30
First: Northbound
Age: 7
Weight: 9-11
Form: -14861 (In career-best form)
Going: Good
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Trainer: Peter Niven
Trainer RTF% Form: 67%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 62
TS: 71
Probability: First Horse Very High
Second: Miss Willows
Age: 6
Weight: 9-8
Form: 0406-1 (C&D winner)
Going: Good to firm in places
Jockey: Jason Hart
Trainer: Simon Whitaker
Trainer RTF% Form: 60%
RTF’s: Ran To Form
OR: 59
TS: 74
Probability: Second Horse Moderate
Analysis: Northbound is thriving with age and has a potent turn of foot. Miss Willows is a solid place contender but may struggle to match the favorite’s acceleration.
Scenario Analysis: If the race becomes a sprint, Miss Willows could capitalize, but Northbound’s versatility makes him the standout.
Best Value Horse at Wetherby (27th April 2025)
Out of my analysis for Wetherby, this horse shows the best value for money based on Age, Weight, OR, TS, and RTF’s:
Horse: Manila Thriller
Age: 3
Weight: 8-10
Form: 2893-1 (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)
OR: 73
TS: 87
RTF’s: Ran To Form
Form and Improvement: Manila Thriller has shown strong recent form and is expected to improve over longer distances, making her a contender even in a competitive field.
Race Conditions: The conditions on the day are expected to suit her, which adds to the value proposition despite the slightly lower winning probability compared to some favorites.
In summary, Manila Thriller presents the best value for money, offering a solid balance between reasonable winning potential and high payout odds.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Wetherby – 27th April 2025
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
Vertu Mazda York Fillies’ Novice Stakes (14:00)
- Clermont Ferrand (85%)
- Camzara (70%) [Flagged: <80%]
Bet With The On-Course Bookmakers Novice Stakes (15:00)
- Gloriously Sassy (80%)
- Flag Of Love (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Constant Security Services Fillies’ Handicap (16:00)
- Never Let Go (82%)
- Manila Thriller (78%) [Flagged: <80%]
Royal Pigeon Association Handicap (17:00)
- Pretty Spirited (80%)
- Cuda Been A Rowlex (75%) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
- Clermont Ferrand (14:00, Wetherby, 85%)
- Gloriously Sassy (15:00, Wetherby, 80%)
- Never Let Go (16:00, Wetherby, 82%)
- Pretty Spirited (17:00, Wetherby, 80%)
Note: All selections meet the ≥80% threshold.
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
- Clermont Ferrand (14:00, Wetherby)
- Gloriously Sassy (15:00, Wetherby)
- Never Let Go (16:00, Wetherby)
- Pretty Spirited (17:00, Wetherby)
Doubles
- Clermont Ferrand + Gloriously Sassy
- Clermont Ferrand + Never Let Go
- Clermont Ferrand + Pretty Spirited
- Gloriously Sassy + Never Let Go
- Gloriously Sassy + Pretty Spirited
- Never Let Go + Pretty Spirited
Trebles
- Clermont Ferrand + Gloriously Sassy + Never Let Go
- Clermont Ferrand + Gloriously Sassy + Pretty Spirited
- Clermont Ferrand + Never Let Go + Pretty Spirited
- Gloriously Sassy + Never Let Go + Pretty Spirited
Four-Fold Accumulator
- Clermont Ferrand + Gloriously Sassy + Never Let Go + Pretty Spirited
Key Insights
- Best Value Pick: Never Let Go (82%) –
- Highest Probability: Clermont Ferrand (85%) –
- Alternative if Needed: Manila Thriller (78%) –
