Bet Smart & Win — Wolverhampton Race Preview
Saturday 8 November 2025 • 9 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 2.08
- NP: 37% • IP: 48%
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
The clear favourite but with IP > NP the market overestimates his chance; model flags below fair value.
Details
- J: Harry Davies
- T: Simon & Ed Crisford
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Trainer RTF%: 40%
- Odds: 4.17
- NP: 24% • IP: 24%
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Recent winner; model and market in agreement — fair value.
Details
- J: Stevie Donohoe
- T: Ollie Sangster
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Trainer RTF%: 36%
- Odds: 5.88
- NP: 17% • IP: 17%
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Last-time-out winner; trading right on model line.
Details
- J: Oliver Carmichael
- T: Eve Johnson Houghton
- Trip: 1m 5f 219y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: 4.00
- NP: 24% • IP: 25%
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Market leader; IP slightly above NP suggests he’s a shade underpriced.
Details
- J: Alec Voikhansky
- T: Tom Ward
- Trip: 1m 5f 219y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: 5.00
- NP: 16% • IP: 20%
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Each-way player but current price shorter than model’s fair line.
Details
- J: Tyler Heard
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m 5f 219y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: 6.67
- NP: 12% • IP: 15%
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
From a powerful yard but priced below model’s view of fair.
Details
- J: Dougie Costello
- T: K R Burke
- Trip: 6f 20y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds: 4.55
- NP: 22% • IP: 22%
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Progressive filly; market accurately reflects her chance.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Marco Botti
- Trip: 6f 20y
- Trainer RTF%: 100%
- Odds: 3.45
- NP: 28% • IP: 29%
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Strong credentials but priced a touch under fair on model figures.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 6f 20y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 4.00
- NP: 20% • IP: 25%
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Consistent but market overrates him relative to the model.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 5f 21y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: 7.14
- NP: 14% • IP: 14%
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Drop in trip a plus; market and model aligned.
Details
- J: Alistair Rawlinson
- T: Simon Hodgson
- Trip: 5f 21y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 3.23
- NP: 25% • IP: 31%
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Favourite on form; IP well above NP so he’s opposable on value.
Details
- J: Kaiya Fraser
- T: James Horton
- Trip: 5f 21y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds: 8.33
- NP: 11% • IP: 12%
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Course winner; slightly underpriced against model probability.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m 142y
- Trainer RTF%: 65%
- Odds: 3.45
- NP: 28% • IP: 29%
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Classy type; minor negative on value at current odds.
Details
- J: Stevie Donohoe
- T: Owen Burrows
- Trip: 1m 142y
- Trainer RTF%: 43%
- Odds: 4.00
- NP: 20% • IP: 25%
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Interesting profile but overbet vs. the model.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 1m 142y
- Trainer RTF%: 51%
- Odds: 5.88
- NP: 12% • IP: 17%
- Overround: 109%
Analysis
Experience angle; but odds too short for true win chance.
Details
- J: Jack Garritty
- T: Liam Bailey
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: 6.67
- NP: 17% • IP: 15%
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Above fair on model; strong, well-balanced Nap candidate.
Details
- J: Marco Ghiani
- T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Trainer RTF%: 60%
- Odds: 4.55
- NP: 22% • IP: 22%
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Market leader; rated as fair value.
Details
- J: Gina Mangan
- T: Ed de Giles
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Trainer RTF%: 17%
- Odds: 6.67
- NP: 12% • IP: 15%
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Reliable but slightly underpriced by the market.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: David O’Meara
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Trainer RTF%: 59%
- Odds: 2.50
- NP: 37% • IP: 40%
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Strong chance; slight negative edge on current market odds.
Details
- J: Jack Garritty
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: 8.33
- NP: 11% • IP: 12%
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Place claims; again IP edges above NP.
Details
- J: Finley Marsh
- T: Adrian Wintle
- Trip: 7f 36y
- Trainer RTF%: 47%
- Odds: 12.50
- NP: 8% • IP: 8%
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Course specialist; priced exactly on model line.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: Mark Loughnane
- Trip: 5f 21y
- Trainer RTF%: 22%
- Odds: 4.00
- NP: 25% • IP: 25%
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Favourite; rating and odds neatly aligned.
Details
- J: Ryan Kavanagh
- T: Ian Williams
- Trip: 5f 21y
- Trainer RTF%: 54%
- Odds: 5.00
- NP: 16% • IP: 20%
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Honest sort; no edge at current odds.
Details
- J: Finley Marsh
- T: J S Moore
- Trip: 5f 21y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: 6.67
- NP: 12% • IP: 15%
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Competitive; small negative on value.
Details
- J: Shane Foley
- T: James Tate
- Trip: 1m 142y
- Trainer RTF%: 78%
- Odds: 6.25
- NP: 16% • IP: 16%
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Lightly raced; model and market aligned.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 1m 142y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: 5.56
- NP: 14% • IP: 18%
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Comes here in form; slightly cramped on the current tissue.
Details
- J: Joey Haynes
- T: David Simcock
- Trip: 1m 142y
- Trainer RTF%: 28%
- Odds: 11.11
- NP: 8% • IP: 9%
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
C&D winner; slightly underpriced vs. model output.
Analysis
Recent winner with NP (17%) comfortably above IP (15%), positive trainer RTF, ideal 7f conditions and an overround within our target band. The model labels Winter Crown as the standout “run-that-wins” on the Wolverhampton card.