Bet Smart & Win — Wolverhampton Race Preview
Sat 11/10/25 • 9 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Bet Smart & Win use a custom AI model to use the Bookmakers’ margin against them. Our AI model deducts their Margin (Overround) to leave us with Fair Market Value.
How We Pick Winners
We use the Overround (bookmaker margin) together with our AI-driven probabilities to spot when the odds favour the bettor — not the bookmaker. Every race is analysed to uncover true market value and highlight profitable edges.
Subscriber Quick Guide
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Bet Style: Many subscribers split stakes between Win bets and Fixed-Price Places (not Each Way). There are no ¼ or ⅕ odds deductions.
- Win Odds (Decimal & Fractional): Target 2.50–7.00 inclusive (e.g., 6/4 (2.50), 9/4 (3.25), 3/1 (4.00), 10/3 (4.33), 7/2 (4.50), 4/1 (5.00), 5/1 (6.00), 6/1 (7.00)) — expected +8% ROI.
- Fixed Place Odds: Target 1.80–2.20 inclusive (e.g., 4/5 (1.80), 5/6 (1.83), 10/11 (1.91), Evens (2.00), 11/10 (2.10), 6/5 (2.20)) — expected +10–14% ROI.
Quick Conversion Key:
2.50 = 6/4 • 3.25 = 9/4 • 4.00 = 3/1 • 4.33 = 10/3 • 4.50 = 7/2 • 5.00 = 4/1 • 6.00 = 5/1 • 7.00 = 6/1
1.80 = 4/5 • 1.83 = 5/6 • 1.91 = 10/11 • 2.00 = Evens • 2.10 = 11/10 • 2.20 = 6/5 - Overround: Aim for 100–113% (Green Zone).
- Runners: Ideally 8–12 per race.
- Value: Target AF (Above Fair). “F” = Fair, “BF” = Below Fair.
- Class: Prefer Class 5, 4 & 3 races.
- Top Jockeys: Names highlighted green mark one of the top 20 jockeys this season.
- NP (Normalized Probability): Should be between 27% & 34% and always greater than IP (Implied Probability).
Follow this strict criteria and you will outperform your previous ROI.
Details
- J: Callum Hutchinson
- T: Ian Williams
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 32
- Odds (approx from IP): 4.55
Analysis
Consistent profile with highest NP; AF value vs 22% IP.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: John Gallagher
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 33
- Odds (approx from IP): 10.00
Analysis
NP > IP shows value; market likely a touch short.
Details
- J: Dougie Costello
- T: Alison Thorpe
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 0
- Odds (approx from IP): 7.14
Analysis
NP edge hints underrated despite recent form.
Details
- J: George Bass
- T: Jack Channon
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 56
- Odds (approx from IP): 5.56
Analysis
Clear AF with NP>IP; strongest on value.
Details
- J: Joe Leavy
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 50
- Odds (approx from IP): 7.14
Analysis
Recent winner; fair-to-above fair value.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: Charlie Fellowes
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 50
- Odds (approx from IP): 7.69
Analysis
Incremental NP edge; potential improver.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: James Owen
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 56
- Odds (approx from IP): 5.88
Analysis
Recent win + headgear tweak; AF with upward trajectory.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: Jennie Candlish
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 62
- Odds (approx from IP): 6.25
Analysis
Solid placer with AF differential.
Details
- J: George Bass
- T: Mark Usher
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 25
- Odds (approx from IP): 7.14
Analysis
Competitive NP; each-way angle.
Details
- J: Harry Russell
- T: Richard Fahey
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 49
- Odds (approx from IP): 3.85
Analysis
Top NP with slight AF edge.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: Ollie Sangster
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 18
- Odds (approx from IP): 4.35
Analysis
Interesting profile; fair value.
Details
- J: Dale Swift
- T: Seb Spencer
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 0
- Odds (approx from IP): 5.26
Analysis
Experienced; each-way claims.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: John C McConnell
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 26
- Odds (approx from IP): 6.25
Analysis
Class drop + AF; leading chance.
Details
- J: Shay Farmer
- T: Alan Brown
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 33
- Odds (approx from IP): 6.67
Analysis
Consistent figures; fair value.
Details
- J: Dylan Hogan
- T: Michael Herrington
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 43
- Odds (approx from IP): 7.14
Analysis
Top weight but competitive NP.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: Tom Dascombe
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 38
- Odds (approx from IP): 5.26
Analysis
Favoured with AF differential; solid.
Details
- J: Darragh Keenan
- T: Jennie Candlish
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 62
- Odds (approx from IP): 6.25
Analysis
Revival signs; danger.
Details
- J: Jonny Peate
- T: Gary Hanmer
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 67
- Odds (approx from IP): 7.69
Analysis
Steady NP; EW claims.
Details
- J: Oliver Stammers
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m5f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 49
- Odds (approx from IP): 4.17
Analysis
Front-runner suits track; AF.
Details
- J: Joe Leavy
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 1m5f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 50
- Odds (approx from IP): 4.55
Analysis
Reliable profile; matches prob.
Details
- J: Paddy Bradley
- T: Simon Pearce
- Trip: 1m5f219y
- Trainer RTF%: 100
- Odds (approx from IP): 5.56
Analysis
Recent win; credible.
Details
- J: Zak Wheatley
- T: Stella Barclay
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 17
- Odds (approx from IP): 6.25
Analysis
Course suits; AF value.
Details
- J: Tommie Jakes
- T: Linda Perratt
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 25
- Odds (approx from IP): 6.67
Analysis
Bounce-back potential; AF.
Details
- J: Elizabeth Gale
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 50
- Odds (approx from IP): 8.33
Analysis
Recent win; value persists.
Details
- J: Jack Doughty
- T: Tony Carroll
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 47
- Odds (approx from IP): 4.55
Analysis
Market leader with AF edge.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: Neil Mulholland
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 27
- Odds (approx from IP): 5.88
Analysis
Fitness angle; NP>IP value.
Details
- J: Dylan Hogan
- T: Richard Price
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 100
- Odds (approx from IP): 7.14
Analysis
Steady NP; place potential.
Analysis
Confidence Factors: Notable class drop; NP 18% vs IP 16% (AF); ideal field size (9); solid trainer/jockey combo.
Verdict: “Run-that-wins” profile; back with confidence.
Details
- Race: 6:20 — Arc £1M Bonus Has £150K Increase! Hcp (Div I)
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 26
- Odds (approx from IP): 6.25