Wolverhampton — Bet Smart & Win
Meeting — Tue 16/09/25
Races: 9 (1–9)
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Our AI breaks down each bookmaker’s overround to uncover true fair value and identify Above-Fair (AF) plays.
How we pick winners
- Overround: 100–115% (green)
- Runners: 8–12
- Value: AF only when NP > IP
- Class: 5, 4 or 3
- Jockey: on strict whitelist
- NP: ≥ 27 and IP: below NP
1
16:25 — Download The Raceday Ready App Selling Stakes (1m142y)
Overround: 118%
Class: 4
Runners: 7
#2 Nanny Park (Form: 774533)
J: Oisin Murphy
NP: 38%IP: 44%16/2034%
Details
Why we like this
- Top market pick; price short in a high-margin book.
#1 Good Banter (Form: 856050)
J: George Wood
NP: 30%IP: 30%15/2029%
Details
Why we like this
- Drop in class; fair versus model.
#3 Chelsea Old Church (Form: 0-5504)
J: Pat Cosgrave
NP: 18%IP: 20%13/2022%
Details
Why we like this
- Settles and finishes; price not yet AF in a 118% book.
2
16:55 — ‘Confined’ Restricted Novice Stakes (Div I) (6f20y)
Overround: 115%
Class: 5
Runners: 11
#1 Justcallmesergio (Form: 10)
J: Clifford Lee
NP: 34%IP: 44%17/2033%
Details
Why we like this
- Strong ability; still short of fair on current price.
#5 From The Hip (Form: 63)
J: Tyler Heard
NP: 28%IP: 23%18/2030%
Details
Why we like this
- NP>IP and green book; does not qualify strictly as jockey is not on whitelist.
#9 Iconic Dawn (Form: 03)
J: Hollie Doyle
NP: 19%IP: 17%16/2026%
Details
Why we like this
- Whitelist jockey; NP>IP in a green 115% book with 11 runners.
3
17:25 — ‘Confined’ Restricted Novice Stakes (Div II) (6f20y)
Overround: 114%
Class: 5
Runners: 9
#4 Indefensible (Form: 53)
J: Harry Russell
NP: 33%IP: 43%17/2032%
Details
Why we like this
- Likely winner on ratings; fails AF and whitelist conditions at current IP/NP.
#2 Escape Plan (Form: 84)
J: Hollie Doyle
NP: 27%IP: 22%17/2028%
Details
Why we like this
- Whitelist jockey, NP≥27, NP>IP, 9 runners, Class 5.
#10 Melodical (Form: 4)
J: George Downing
NP: 31%IP: 27%18/2030%
Details
Why we like this
- NP>IP in green book; does not qualify as jockey is not on whitelist.
4
18:00 — Arc AW £1m Bonus Returns Novice Stakes (6f20y)
Overround: 113%
Class: 5
Runners: 7
#2 Grey Jaguar (Form: 252)
J: Clifford Lee
NP: 34%IP: 44%16/2033%
Details
Why we like this
- Most likely winner; price below fair.
#4 Shamacid (Form: 522)
J: Hollie Doyle
NP: 31%IP: 29%16/2031%
Details
Why we like this
- Whitelist jockey; NP near top of band and ≥ IP; qualifies in green book.
#3 Proud To Be Fox (Form: 53-)
J: Sean Kirrane
NP: 20%IP: 25%14/2027%
Details
Why we like this
- Potential place angle; fails AF at current IP and jockey not on whitelist.
5
18:30 — Book To Stay Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Hcap (6f20y)
Overround: 119%
Class: 6
Runners: 13
#3 Nordic Glory (Form: 143543)
J: Ryan Kavanagh
NP: 27%IP: 17%16/2029%
Details
Why we like this
- AF on price; red overround prevents qualification.
#8 Sam’s Hope (Form: 924242)
J: Oisin Murphy
NP: 26%IP: 29%15/2027%
Details
Why we like this
- Overbet; below fair.
#6 Sarabi (Form: 661438)
J: Hollie Doyle
NP: 15%IP: 17%13/2022%
Details
Why we like this
- Versatile run style; fair.
6
19:00 — Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com Hcap (1m5f219y)
Overround: 118%
Class: 6
Runners: 13
#7 Forglen (Form: 434271)
J: Ashley Lewis
NP: 28%IP: 20%16/2029%
Details
Why we like this
- AF on model; red overround prevents qualification.
#6 Sneaky Blinder (Form: 603333)
J: Clifford Lee
NP: 26%IP: 14%18/2030%
Details
Why we like this
- AF and value on NP vs IP; still cannot qualify until overround ≤115%.
#13 Advertorial (Form: 125543)
J: Marco Ghiani
NP: 15%IP: 14%14/2023%
Details
Why we like this
- 3yo upside; fair.
7
19:30 — Book Hotel And Conferencing At Wolverhampton Hcap (7f36y)
Overround: 117%
Class: 6
Runners: 12
#4 Bizarre Law (Form: 071259)
J: Oisin Murphy
NP: 28%IP: 12%18/2031%
Details
Why we like this
- AF value; orange overround stops qualification until ≤115%.
#11 Triggered (Form: 252433)
J: Jack Doughty
NP: 27%IP: 12%17/2029%
Details
Why we like this
- AF and value; does not qualify due to non-whitelist jockey.
#1 Guiteau (Form: 592041)
J: Ashley Lewis
NP: 18%IP: 29%14/2024%
Details
Why we like this
- Penalty and price risk; below fair.
8
20:00 — betcalculator.com Handicap (1m1f104y)
Overround: 116%
Class: 6
Runners: 13
#3 Serious Look (Form: 0-1138)
J: Taylor Fisher
NP: 30%IP: 15%19/2033%
Details
Why we like this
- C&D record 113; AF standout. Not a whitelist jockey, so cannot qualify.
#7 Stipulation (Form: -66631)
J: Hollie Doyle
NP: 27%IP: 14%18/2031%
Details
Why we like this
- Whitelist jockey, NP band met, NP>IP; qualifies.
#1 Harryella (Form: -24611)
J: Oisin Murphy
NP: 16%IP: 43%14/2024%
Details
Why we like this
- In form; price too short relative to model.
9
20:30 — Get Raceday Ready Handicap (5f21y)
Overround: 118%
Class: 6
Runners: 10
#4 Jagetme (Form: -33771)
J: Hollie Doyle
NP: 29%IP: 22%17/2030%
Details
Why we like this
- 2f kick; fair at current quotes in a red book.
#2 Jungle Dance (Form: 156-02)
J: Clifford Lee
NP: 28%IP: 22%16/2029%
Details
Why we like this
- Rail and fractions; fair with win chance.
#6 Gustav Graves (Form: 520455)
J: Gina Mangan
NP: 15%IP: 14%15/2026%
Details
Why we like this
- C&D reliable; AF on model but cannot qualify (jockey not on whitelist; overround red).
NAP
Wolverhampton — NAP
NAPOverround: 116%Class: 6Runners: 13
#3 Serious Look (Form: 0-1138)
J: Taylor Fisher
NP: 30%IP: 15%19/2033%
Details
Why we like this
- Nap pick by model; not a whitelist jockey, so shown as non-qualifying per strict rule.