Wolverhampton — Sat 20/09/25
Bet Smart & Win
Races: 9 (1–9)
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
Our AI breaks down each bookmaker’s overround to uncover true fair value and identify Above-Fair (AF) plays.
How we pick winners
- Overround: 100–115% (green)
- Runners: 8–12
- Value: AF only when NP > IP
- Class: 5, 4 or 3
- Jockey: on strict whitelist
- NP: ≥ 27 and IP: below NP
1
Race 1
Overround: 111%
Class: 6
Runners: 3
Standard
#1 Midnight Rodeo (Form: 786212)
J: Darragh KeenanT: George ScottRTF%: 67AF
NP: 36%IP: 32%16/20
Details
Highest NP in a small field; trainer/jockey profile positive.
Why we like this
- NP (36) > IP (32) indicates value; recent form strong.
#2 Dunkeld Dreamer (Form: 6513112)
J: Sam JamesT: K R BurkeRTF%: 63AF
NP: 34%IP: 31%15/20
Details
Forecast fav; NP edges IP in a tight market.
Why we like this
- Meets AF (NP>IP); consistent profile.
#3 Gullane Girl (Form: 4576132b)
J: Mason PaetelT: Jack MorlandRTF%: 58AF
NP: 30%IP: 28%14/20
Details
NP above IP suggests overlooked; depth against top two.
Why we like this
- AF edge present; small field reduces variance edge.
2
Race 2
Overround: 108%
Class: 6
Runners: 8
Standard
#1 Henrythenate (Form: 6346452p1)
J: Mikkel MortensenT: Charlie FellowesRTF%: 59AF
NP: 28%IP: 26%15/20
Details
Recent win; AF edge in 108% green book.
Why we like this
- NP>IP and positive recency.
#5 No Claims Bonus (Form: 0752)
J: Pierre-Louis JaminT: Harry EustaceRTF%: 60AF
NP: 18%IP: 16%13/20
Details
Improver profile; class ceiling noted.
Why we like this
- Price-based AF; place angle.
#3 Highlighting (Form: 0768162tp)
J: Georgia DobieT: Eve Johnson HoughtonRTF%: 40AF
NP: 16%IP: 14%12/20
Details
Sectional angle; inconsistency tempers stake.
Why we like this
- AF at current tissue; volatility acknowledged.
3
Race 3
Overround: 112%
Class: 5
Runners: 12
Standard
#11 Ten Sixty Six (Form: 2232)
J: Hollie DoyleT: David O’MearaRTF%: 48AF
NP: 22%IP: 20%14/20
Details
Fav with solid form; AF but NP < 27 keeps it as non-qualifier.
Why we like this
- Reliable profile; best of the group.
#2 Champagne Dream (Form: 332)
J: Kyle StrydomT: Dylan CunhaRTF%: 52AF
NP: 18%IP: 16%12/20
Details
On the upgrade; AF at tissue.
Why we like this
- Progression angle; each-way value.
#5 Reliable Ricki (Form: 332)
J: Darragh KeenanT: George ScottRTF%: 67AF
NP: 16%IP: 14%12/20
Details
Consistent placings; AF but below NP threshold.
Why we like this
- Solid place credentials.
4
Race 4
Overround: 105%
Class: 5
Runners: 12
Standard
#2 Deluded (Form: 202)
J: Paddy BradleyT: Charlie FellowesRTF%: 59AF
NP: 30%IP: 28%17/20
Details
Even-money type; AF edge confirmed.
Why we like this
- Strong form lines; price still value.
#9 Queen Kassi (Form: Unplaced)
J: Nicola CurrieT: Ollie SangsterRTF%: 44AF
NP: 18%IP: 16%12/20
Details
Scopey; AF at 5/1 zone.
Why we like this
- Upside with experience; E/W viable.
#3 Pantile’s Gift (Form: 72)
J: Josephine GordonT: Jack MorlandRTF%: 58AF
NP: 14%IP: 12%11/20
Details
Placed efforts; AF but modest win chance.
Why we like this
- Fair value for minor money.
5
Race 5
Overround: 110%
Class: 5
Runners: 10
Standard
#5 Noisy Music (Form: 4628614p)
J: Joey HaynesT: Michael ApplebyRTF%: 27AF
NP: 20%IP: 18%13/20
Details
Strong C&D record; narrow AF edge.
Why we like this
- NP>IP; market still fair.
#3 Hilltop (Form: 6-21684)
J: Nicola CurrieT: Daniel & Claire KublerRTF%: 42AF
NP: 16%IP: 14%12/20
Details
Consistent; AF on tissue.
Why we like this
- Solid figures; place chance.
#9 Graduated (Form: 3433333p)
J: Gina ManganT: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie InsoleRTF%: 46AF
NP: 14%IP: 12%11/20
Details
Persistent placer; AF but limited win upside.
Why we like this
- Place-focused play.
6
Race 6
Overround: 109%
Class: 6
Runners: 11
Standard
#10 Under Curfew (Form: 8303529v)
J: William CarsonT: Tony CarrollRTF%: 47AF
NP: 18%IP: 16%12/20
Details
Handy mark; AF edge modest.
Why we like this
- NP>IP; workable draw.
#1 Hint Of The Jungle (Form: 0455414ht)
J: Darragh KeenanT: Mike MurphyRTF%: 75AF
NP: 16%IP: 14%12/20
Details
Consistent; AF but win ask.
Why we like this
- Trainer in form; place play.
#7 Step Along (Form: 2853363)
J: Connor PlanasT: William Muir & Chris GrassickRTF%: 82AF
NP: 14%IP: 12%11/20
Details
Reliable placer; AF but low NP.
Why we like this
- Value for minor money only.
7
Race 7
Overround: 107%
Class: 6
Runners: 11
Standard
#10 Parisian Phoenix (Form: 0544383p)
J: Hollie DoyleT: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie InsoleRTF%: 46AF
NP: 16%IP: 14%12/20
Details
Strong HCP debut efforts; AF edge remains.
Why we like this
- Booking boosts confidence; fair price.
#5 Karakula (Form: 900213)
J: Jonny PeateT: James FergusonRTF%: 60AF
NP: 18%IP: 16%13/20
Details
Fav with AF edge; profile solid.
Why we like this
- NP still ahead of IP; competitive.
#2 Photon (Form: 497-575p)
J: Paddy BradleyT: Roger TealRTF%: 62AF
NP: 14%IP: 12%11/20
Details
AF on price; needs to step forward.
Why we like this
- Potential improver; saver only.
8
Race 8
Overround: 106%
Class: 6
Runners: 7
Standard
#2 Jimmy Mark (Form: 1222525)
J: Hollie DoyleT: Stuart KittowRTF%: —AF
NP: 28%IP: 26%15/20
Details
Proven winner; AF margin intact.
Why we like this
- NP>IP; strong overall profile.
#3 Harlington (Form: 6821474)
J: Mason PaetelT: Joe TickleRTF%: 25AF
NP: 22%IP: 20%13/20
Details
C&D experience; AF at current quotes.
Why we like this
- Solid each-way shape.
#1 Mr Nugget (Form: 6783444w2)
J: Darragh KeenanT: David SimcockRTF%: 27AF
NP: 20%IP: 18%12/20
Details
Consistent placings; AF but modest win chance.
Why we like this
- Place angle; saver.
9
Race 9
Overround: 109%
Class: 6
Runners: 12
Standard
#6 Dragonfly In Amber (Form: 570-13)
J: Taryn LangleyT: Dominic Ffrench DavisRTF%: 50AF
NP: 24%IP: 22%16/20
Details
Lightly raced; recent win; AF in a fair (109%) book.
Why we like this
- Top of our ratings; pace set-up suitable.
#11 Up The Monk (Form: 8000313)
J: Mason PaetelT: Michael ApplebyRTF%: 27AF
NP: 18%IP: 16%13/20
Details
Consistent recent efforts; AF at ~5/1.
Why we like this
- Profiles well for track; each-way value.
#3 Style King (Form: 0836713h)
J: Alex JaryT: Chris DwyerRTF%: 33AF
NP: 16%IP: 14%12/20
Details
Sectional effectiveness; AF but below top pair.
Why we like this
- Live for minors; outsider overlay.
NAP
Wolverhampton — NAP
Overround: 109%
Class: 6
Runners: 12
Standard
#6 Dragonfly In Amber (Form: 570-13)
J: Taryn Langley
NP: 24%IP: 22%17/20
Details
Why we like this
- Lightly raced profile with a recent win.
- AF (NP 24 > IP 22) in a green 109% book.
- Ideal class and distance; pace set-up suits.