Bet Smart & Win — Newcastle Race Preview
Saturday 25 October 2025 • 8 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Best value profile with a positive NP > IP gap; solid form base.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Likely favourite but model flags poor value (IP > NP).
Details
- J: Elizabeth Gale
- T: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Honest profile; meets several criteria; fair proposition for places.
Details
- J: George Bass
- T: Jack Channon
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Well-drawn to attack; fair value in a compressed market.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: Ed Dunlop
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Solid form pick but marginally overbet; below fair value.
Details
- J: Alec Voikhansky
- T: Richard Hannon
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Consistent placer; workable mark; fair each-way angle.
Details
- J: Pat Cosgrave
- T: Edward Bethell
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 50%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Good stable debut; fair value to progress again.
Details
- J: Jason Watson
- T: Andrew Balding
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 57%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
Justified market leader but underpriced relative to model.
Details
- J: Nicola Currie
- T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
- Trip: 7f36y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 110%
Analysis
C&D winner; reliable; fair price in context.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: S Woods
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 69%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Unexposed at trip; fair price signal; place claims.
Details
- J: Alice Bond
- T: Martin Dunne
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 30%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Market too short versus model; avoid at current price.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 1m142y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Reliable type; meets fair-value bar; competitive.
Details
- J: Archie Young
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 2m120y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Ultra-consistent but price too tight; below fair.
Details
- J: Daniel Muscutt
- T: Nicky Henderson
- Trip: 2m120y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
Main danger on ability; model says poor value at current quotes.
Details
- J: Ryan Kavanagh
- T: Ian Williams
- Trip: 2m120y
- Trainer RTF%: 55%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 108%
Analysis
C&D winner; fair value alternative to market leaders.
Details
- J: Billy Garritty
- T: Michael & David Easterby
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Now 2lb below last AW placing; fair value to bounce back.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: Ivan Furtado
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 37%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
Favourite on some books, but model marks below fair.
Details
- J: Jack Callan
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 6f20y
- Trainer RTF%: 62%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 112%
Analysis
In form for powerful yard; fair price to hit frame.
Details
- J: Joe Fanning
- T: Charlie Johnston
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 49%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Well-handicapped but a shade short; model rates below fair.
Details
- J: Nicola Currie
- T: Daniel & Claire Kubler
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Consistent and strong yard; fair value in a big field.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: Alice Haynes
- Trip: 1m1f104y
- Trainer RTF%: 25%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 113%
Analysis
Unexposed; ticks boxes; fair at current tissue.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: Scott Dixon
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Strong C&D profile and below last winning mark; fair value to go close.
Details
- J: William Carson
- T: Tony Carroll
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 48%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Arrives in form but price short versus model; below fair.
Details
- J: Billy Garritty
- T: Michael & David Easterby
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%
Analysis
Favourite in places but overbet; model projects below fair.
Analysis
Course-and-distance record + workable mark; ticks our fair value boxes in an 111% book. Back with confidence.
Details
- J: Kieran O’Neill
- T: Scott Dixon
- Trip: 5f21y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds: (not provided)
- Overround: 111%