Before You Dive In – Read This First
Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye. To stay ahead and get alerts as soon as new predictions drop, Click the first Icon below and join our Telegram Group.
Race Name: FBC Manby Bowdler H’cap Chase (C4)
Race Distance: 2 m 4 f
Racecourse: Worcester
Time of Race: 2:00
First: God’s Own Getaway
Age: 7 Weight: 11-11
Form: 45443- (model-consistent finisher)
Going: Good (GS 7.6)
Jockey: Harry Skelton Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF%: 59 RTF’s: 119
OR: 107 TS: 112
Probability: High
Second: Abingworth
Age: 7 Weight: 11-13
Form: 6P311- (two late-season wins)
Going: Good
Jockey: Caoilin Quinn Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore
Trainer RTF%: 46 RTF’s: 115
OR: 109 TS: 105
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
The Skelton yard is running at 24 % strike-rate and a healthy 59 % RTF, and God’s Own Getaway brings the best speed figure (112) in the field on ground that suits. He was within 3 l of a 117-rated rival at Market Rasen, earning an above-par 119 RPR and showing a clean round of jumping in first-time cheek-pieces. His stalk-and-pounce style is perfect for Worcester’s long home straight, and the 2 m 4 f trip looks his optimum based on closing sectionals. Abingworth rates the chief threat: he is up 4 lb for back-to-back late-winter wins but remains fairly treated versus his peak 113 hurdle figure. By contrast, top-weight Byzantine Empire must concede 10 lb to the selection and has bled on two of his last five starts, a risk flagged by Timeform’s health notes. Jet-fuel pace is unlikely, with only Uncle Arthur habitually forcing, which again hands tactical advantage to the selection.
Scenario Analysis:
If an unexpected shower turns the ground on the soft side, Abingworth (heavy-ground winner) closes the gap to the favourite, while staying types like Okavango Delta enter the trifecta picture. Conversely, a genuine front-running burn-up would bring Midnight Jewel’s relentless rhythm into play.
Race Name: PJ Nicholls KGM ‘Genuinely Made’ H’cap Chase (C4)
Race Distance: 2 m 110 y
Racecourse: Worcester
Time of Race: 2:30
First: Jet Of Dreams
Age: 7 Weight: 11-4
Form: 32121- (progressive)
Going: Good
Jockey: James Bowen Trainer: Warren Greatrex
Trainer RTF%: 69 RTF’s: 122
OR: 108 TS: 111
Probability: High
Second: Salamanca Bay
Age: 9 Weight: 11-7
Form: P6P73- (best run LTO)
Going: Good
Jockey: Michael Nolan Trainer: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White
Trainer RTF%: 60 RTF’s: 135
OR: 111 TS: 124
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Jet Of Dreams is 2-from-2 in cheek-pieces and clocked the fastest comparative final-circuit figure on the card at Ffos Las when last seen, confirming he stays further than this bare 2 m. With pace forecast to be honest but not fierce, his high cruising speed becomes decisive. The Greatrex team boast the best 14-day RTF (69 %), and the gelding’s 122 RTF figure is clear on private ratings. Salamanca Bay is the value danger: he posted a career-best 124 TS here last summer and returned to form when third behind a pair now rated in the 120s. South Omo Zone, up 7 lb for a sole success, faces a speed test that may expose his jumping at the ditch on the far side.
Scenario Analysis:
Rain softens the surface? Salamanca Bay (by Saint Des Saints) relishes cut and would be promoted. A stop-start gallop hands tactical sway to Doyouknowwhatimean, whose best figures come off slow early fractions.
Race Name: DragonBet ‘Born From The Betting Ring’ NHF Div I (C5)
Race Distance: 2 m
Racecourse: Worcester
Time of Race: 3:00
First: Reckless Spending
Age: 5 Weight: 11-2
Form: 2- (eye-catching debut)
Going: Good
Jockey: James Bowen Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Trainer RTF%: 55 RTF’s: —
OR: N/A TS: N/A
Probability: Moderate
Second: Madajovy
Age: 5 Weight: 11-2
Form: 3- (strong finish LTO)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Skelton Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF%: 59 RTF’s: —
OR: N/A TS: N/A
Probability: Some
Analysis:
With no official ratings, the model leans on pedigree, yard bumper strike-rates and reported gallop times. Reckless Spending cost €88 k and is a three-parts brother to dual Grade-2 winner Shiskin. Henderson fires at 28 % with debutants in British bumpers, and early exchanges place him clear favourite with money from respected pro layers. Madajovy’s Timeform homework notes a 23 mph final-furlong breeze-up—excellent for a May bumper—and Skelton’s bumper horses run to 98 p average. Bushstreet Bowman shaped green on debut and may need further, while Captain Hugo (Old Vic damline) will appreciate fences down the line.
Scenario Analysis:
If the headwind stiffens down the back, hold-up closers like Gunar could slice through tiring leaders. A messy stop-go tempo would suit experienced Captain Hugo, whose sole run featured a respectable 40-mph mid-race surge.
Race Name: DragonBet ‘Born From The Betting Ring’ NHF Div II (C5)
Race Distance: 2 m
Racecourse: Worcester
Time of Race: 3:30
First: Coastal Command
Age: 5 Weight: 11-2
Form: — (point-to-point winner)
Going: Good
Jockey: James Bowen Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Trainer RTF%: 55 RTF’s: —
OR: N/A TS: N/A
Probability: Moderate
Second: Ice In The Veins
Age: 5 Weight: 11-2
Form: 2- (promising Warwick effort)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Skelton Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF%: 59 RTF’s: —
OR: N/A TS: N/A
Probability: Some
Analysis:
Coastal Command is a son of Scorpion out of a Spring Flight mare (two bumper winners from three foals) and sauntered home in a Larkhill point in February, recording a 61.5 final-3f sectional—the quickest on the card. Henderson’s purchase history shows a 1.84 IV when retaining a horse after such a win. Ice In The Veins stays every yard and brings a 63 TS figure (rare in bumpers), but grey progeny of Order Of St George have been slow to mature. Fanny Moon’s dam produced two Listed hurdlers in France, making her an each-way dark horse.
Scenario Analysis:
Should they crawl early, the race turns into a 3-furlong dash suiting Ice In The Veins. Conversely, any watering-induced tackiness blunts his burst and favours Coastal Command’s proven stamina.
Race Name: eventmasters.co.uk Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (GBB)
Race Distance: 2 m 4 f
Racecourse: Worcester
Time of Race: 4:00
First: Jena d’Oudairies
Age: 6 Weight: 11-9
Form: 23415- (solid in Listed company)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Cobden Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Trainer RTF%: 83 RTF’s: 118
OR: 111 TS: 108
Probability: Very High
Second: Hard Dealt
Age: 5 Weight: 11-2
Form: 1642- (career-best LTO)
Going: Good
Jockey: David Bass Trainer: Henry Daly
Trainer RTF%: 40 RTF’s: 112
OR: 102 TS: 75
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Jena d’Oudairies sets a lofty standard: her Warwick win came in a time 2.1 sec faster than the boys’ novice on the same card, translating to a 108 TS and 118 RTF. Nicholls has chosen this GBB qualifier—worth £20 k bonuses—to protect her mark for a summer listed tilt. The mare hurdles slickly off either lead leg and is proven on good ground. Hard Dealt steps up from a Ludlow maiden in which she tanked through the contest before flattening late; that run screams improvement at this longer trip. Mistletoe shows flashes but is penalised 7 lb and shaped quirky under pressure, while Brooklyn Callin lacks a recent outing (169-day lay-off).
Scenario Analysis:
Heavy rain (unlikely per MetOffice) would shift the edge towards stamina-laden Ciakat (Mount Nelson × Authorized). A searching gallop from front-runner Plus Point could set it up for closers, but if Cobden dictates uncontested fractions, Jena becomes almost bomb-proof.
Race Name: Step Into Luxury With Purple Granite H’cap Hurdle (C4)
Race Distance: 2 m 7 f
Racecourse: Worcester
Time of Race: 4:30
First: Kiss My Face
Age: 8 Weight: 12-0
Form: 4242P- (course winner, consistent)
Going: Good
Jockey: Joe Anderson (3) Trainer: Alastair Ralph
Trainer RTF%: 50 RTF’s: 110
OR: 108 TS: 100
Probability: High
Second: Sirekoff
Age: 6 Weight: 11-11
Form: 09642- (peaking)
Going: Good
Jockey: Jack Tudor Trainer: David Pipe
Trainer RTF%: 56 RTF’s: 113
OR: 105 TS: 102
Probability: Moderate
Analysis:
Kiss My Face is 2-0-4 over course hurdles and posted the top final-400m split (12.8 sec) on this card last July. A 5-lb claimer offsets his new career-high mark and he’s Monday’s Pricewise springer on Oddschecker (opened 4/1 into 11/4). Pipe has freshened Sirekoff and puts cheek-pieces back on; his 102 TS is joint-best, but the gelding can over-race. Thankyourluckystar is respected yet has a tougher task conceding 2 lb to the selection on collateral Bangor form. Speed-rating queen Keppel Queen (TS 81) lacks stamina evidence beyond 2 ½ m.
Scenario Analysis:
If a storm turns the ground tacky, Pipe’s soft-ground sire Sholokhov boosts Sirekoff’s claims, while the classy flat-bred Kiss My Face could prove vulnerable. Conversely, a stop-start tempo could allow Alexandra Larose to steal lengths down the back straight.
Race Name: Worcester Racecourse Ladies Day H’cap Hurdle Div I (C5)
Race Distance: 2 m 4 f
Racecourse: Worcester
Time of Race: 5:05
First: The Wire Flyer
Age: 10 Weight: 10-7 (+7 ex)
Form: 4P58-1 (revived since wind-op)
Going: Good
Jockey: Elizabeth Gale (7) Trainer: Alison Thorpe
Trainer RTF%: 50 RTF’s: 101
OR: 77 TS: 74
Probability: Moderate
Second: Broomfield Gale
Age: 7 Weight: 11-8 (+7 ex)
Form: 7RPO-1 (career-best)
Going: Good
Jockey: Mr Robbie David (7) Trainer: Daisy Hitchins
Trainer RTF%: 50 RTF’s: 104
OR: 92 TS: 88
Probability: Some
Analysis:
Div I looks volatile, but The Wire Flyer re-emerged from the doldrums after a second-time wind-surgery, pulling 8 l clear at Taunton and clocking an above-par 74 TS for the grade. Even with a 7 lb penalty he still sits 2 lb below his last winning hurdles mark. The 7-lb claimer knows the horse and claims again. Broomfield Gale landed a weak Plumpton handicap but posted an improved 88 TS; she may bounce with a quick turnaround. Les’s Jersey Royal has place claims off a light weight, while Sandscape continues to finish weakly at this trip.
Scenario Analysis:
If showers bring stamina into play, Getaway With You (by Getaway) becomes a late-threat. Conversely, a drying breeze upgrades front-runners and makes The Wire Flyer’s on-the-pace style more potent.
Race Name: Worcester Racecourse Ladies Day H’cap Hurdle Div II (C5)
Race Distance: 2 m 4 f
Racecourse: Worcester
Time of Race: 5:35
First: Ivane
Age: 7 Weight: 12-0
Form: P2123- (rock-solid)
Going: Good
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies Trainer: James Owen
Trainer RTF%: 66 RTF’s: 95
OR: 96 TS: 81
Probability: High
Second: Our Lil
Age: 4 Weight: 11-6
Form: 4317- (progressive early)
Going: Good
Jockey: Harry Skelton Trainer: Dan Skelton
Trainer RTF%: 59 RTF’s: 99
OR: 96 TS: 75
Probability: Some
Analysis:
Ivane drops from a stronger Bangor 0-105 where he was forced to race wide. His 81 TS and 95 RTF put him 6 lb clear of par, and he has tactical speed to sit handy. The booking of Sam Twiston-Davies—29 % for this yard—catches the eye. Our Lil, a Cable Bay ex-flat type, gets a generous weight-for-age allowance and promises improvement on only her third hurdles start. Kap De Triomphe needs further, while Hey Mister DJ is hard to win with.
Scenario Analysis:
Heavy ground would swing things toward stamina-laden Pub Crawl. A stop-start gallop brings the doubtful-stayer Orange Diamond into contention; otherwise Ivane’s cruising speed should dominate.
Nap of the Meeting
Out of my analysis for Worcester – Tuesday 13 May 2025, this is the selection I am most confident about.
Age: 6 Weight: 11-9
Form: 23415- (seasonal re-appearance backed by fast time)
OR: 111 TS: 108 RTF’s: 118
Confidence Factors:
Proven Listed-level form, class-drop into a mare-only novice, best speed rating in the field, Nicholls/Cobden combo 31 % at Worcester, ground ideal, and sustained market support since decs.
Race Conditions:
Worcester’s 2 m 4 f inner track rewards a handy position and slick hurdling—two of Jena d’Oudairies’ standout assets. A GoingStick reading of 7.6 is identical to her Warwick win, and the small field ensures a smooth passage.
In summary, Jena d’Oudairies is my Nap of the Meeting — the run-that-wins scenario aligns strongest with the data, making this the day’s standout bet.
Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – For the Above Meeting
Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)
FBC Manby Bowdler H’cap Chase (2:00)
God’s Own Getaway (75 %)
Abingworth (60 %)
PJ Nicholls KGM H’cap Chase (2:30)
Jet Of Dreams (75 %)
Salamanca Bay (60 %)
DragonBet NHF Div I (3:00)
Reckless Spending (60 %)
Madajovy (45 %) [Flagged: <80%]
DragonBet NHF Div II (3:30)
Coastal Command (60 %)
Ice In The Veins (45 %) [Flagged: <80%]
eventmasters.co.uk Mares’ Novice (4:00)
Jena d’Oudairies (85 %)
Hard Dealt (60 %)
Purple Granite H’cap Hurdle (4:30)
Kiss My Face (80 %)
Sirekoff (60 %)
Ladies Day H’cap Hurdle Div I (5:05)
The Wire Flyer (60 %)
Broomfield Gale (45 %) [Flagged: <80%]
Ladies Day H’cap Hurdle Div II (5:35)
Ivane (75 %)
Our Lil (45 %) [Flagged: <80%]
Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)
Jena d’Oudairies – 4:00 Worcester (85 %)
Kiss My Face – 4:30 Worcester (80 %)
Jet Of Dreams – 2:30 Worcester (75 %) [Flagged <80%]
God’s Own Getaway – 2:00 Worcester (75 %) [Flagged <80%]
Note: Only two runners meet the ≥80 % threshold; lower-confidence picks are flagged.
Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown
Singles
Jena d’Oudairies – 4:00 Worcester
Kiss My Face – 4:30 Worcester
Jet Of Dreams – 2:30 Worcester
God’s Own Getaway – 2:00 Worcester
Doubles
Jena d’Oudairies + Kiss My Face
Jena d’Oudairies + Jet Of Dreams
Jena d’Oudairies + God’s Own Getaway
Kiss My Face + Jet Of Dreams
Kiss My Face + God’s Own Getaway
Jet Of Dreams + God’s Own Getaway
Trebles
Jena d’Oudairies + Kiss My Face + Jet Of Dreams
Jena d’Oudairies + Kiss My Face + God’s Own Getaway
Jena d’Oudairies + Jet Of Dreams + God’s Own Getaway
Kiss My Face + Jet Of Dreams + God’s Own Getaway
Four-Fold Accumulator
Jena d’Oudairies + Kiss My Face + Jet Of Dreams + God’s Own Getaway
Key Insights
Best Value Pick: Jet Of Dreams (75 %) – Still progressing, strong speed figure, and underestimated by early market.
Highest Probability: Jena d’Oudairies (85 %) – Class edge and optimal conditions.
Alternative if Needed: Kiss My Face (80 %) – Course specialist with a handy claim.
Final Tip: Keep an eye on late weather; meaningful rain before 4 p.m. would make frame-players with proven soft-ground pedigrees (Salamanca Bay, Ciakat) worth small savers.
