Bet Smart & Win — Worcester Race Preview
Fri 26/09/25 • 7 Race Card • 3 selections per race — In Order Of Highest Probability
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
We use the Bookmakers Margin against them, by calculating the formula and showing us the True Market Value for each selection. This is done for every selection in the meeting.
How We Pick Winners
- Overround 100–115% (green)
- Runners 8–12
- Value: AF preferred (NP ≥ IP + 3%)
- Class: 5, 4 or 3
- Whitelist jockeys
- NP ≥ 27, IP < NP
Details
Analysis
The clear favourite based on odds, but the bookmaker’s margin inflates the implied probability. NP suggests a more realistic chance; value graded Below Fair at the short price in a small field.
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Analysis
Second favourite in a three-runner race. With IP > NP the model marks value as Below Fair despite solid credentials.
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Analysis
Clear outsider but the big gap (NP ≫ IP) flags Above Fair value; absolute win chance remains low.
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Analysis
Forecast favourite with C&D form; model marks value Below Fair (IP > NP) in a tight handicap.
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Analysis
Strong case off recent C&D second, but with IP above NP the model grades value Below Fair at current prices.
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Analysis
C&D winner; place claims, but with IP > NP the value is marked Below Fair.
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Analysis
Solid fencing profile this term; NP ~ IP so the model marks this as Fair value.
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Analysis
Needs a rebound run; with IP above NP the price looks a touch short — Below Fair.
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Analysis
Consistent profile but again IP > NP produces a Below Fair tag at current quotes.
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Analysis
Comes in hot but IP > NP trims value — Below Fair at the top of the market.
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Analysis
Model flags Above Fair with NP significantly below IP (overpriced by the market); interesting at odds.
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Interesting Irish Flat recruit; still priced a touch short on the model — Below Fair.
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Analysis
Standout on form; short price typical of a Below Fair rating (IP > NP) despite being the likeliest winner.
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Analysis
Respected second pick; price a shade strong per model — Below Fair.
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Analysis
Scope for improvement but current odds slightly overstate chance — Below Fair.
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Analysis
Course form and headgear angle help, but model value is Below Fair at current price.
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Solid contender but price sits a bit short — Below Fair.
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Analysis
Well-regarded yard; model marks Below Fair with IP exceeding NP.
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Analysis
Thriving since yard switch and won well latest. Despite a Below Fair model tag (IP > NP), current form keeps him top-ranked.
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Analysis
Consistent profile; model pegs Below Fair but firmly in the mix on recent efforts.
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Analysis
Back-to-back wins and still feasibly treated; model shows Below Fair at current quotes.
Analysis
Confidence Factors: Strong recent winning form, thriving since trainer switch, positive momentum lines up with model ranking.
Race Conditions: Class 4 Handicap Hurdle over 2m on Good ground.
Trainer RTF: —%
Summary: This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model.