Bet Smart & Win — Yarmouth Race Preview
Tuesday 21 October 2025 • 7 Races • Top 3 Selections Per Race
Methodology & Performance
How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
The AI selects the three most probable outcomes in each race, ranked in order of confidence. The third selection is included specifically to support our Placepot bets.
At Bet Smart & Win, we leverage the Bookmakers’ Margin against them to uncover the True Market Value. Our approach focuses on Overround, Probability, and Value to identify fair betting opportunities. ROI: 92.3% Strike Rate: 27.2%
These ROI and Strike Rate figures are based on our Subscribers’ Gold & Silver Tiers.
How We Pick Winners
Our subscribers use a strict set of criteria based on Overround, Probability, and Value.
How To Read the Format
We use the bookmaker’s Overround (margin) against them. Our model removes this margin to reveal the Fair Market Value. We recommend avoiding bets when the Overround exceeds 115%.
The next key tool is Normalized Probability (NP) versus Implied Probability (IP). The golden rule — NP should always be higher than IP.
Value is our final measure. Each selection is labelled as AF (Above Fair), F (Fair), or BF (Below Fair) to show whether the odds truly represent value.
When all these conditions align, the selection card will display a green border.
Details
- J: George Wood
- T: Robert Cowell
- Trip: 5f 42y
- Trainer RTF%: 20%
- Odds (dec): 3.85 (from IP)
Analysis
Strongest value profile; positive NP−IP edge in a tight 4-runner.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Dylan Cunha
- Trip: 5f 42y
- Trainer RTF%: 21%
- Odds (dec): 3.85 (from IP)
Analysis
Clear second choice; retains AF value vs the market.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: George Boughey
- Trip: 5f 42y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (dec): 5.56 (from IP)
Analysis
Third pick but still value-positive on our tissue.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Charlie Appleby
- Trip: 1m 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 74%
- Odds (dec): 3.45 (from IP)
Analysis
Standout profile for top yard; clear AF edge in a suitable race.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 78%
- Odds (dec): 7.69 (from IP)
Analysis
Solid EW alternative; retains AF edge at current tissue.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds (dec): 8.33 (from IP)
Analysis
Respected on connections and market; AF at current projection.
Details
- J: Kyle Strydom
- T: James Fanshawe
- Trip: 7f 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 68%
- Odds (dec): 5.56 (from IP)
Analysis
Top pick; reliable value with form to match.
Details
- J: Ray Dawson
- T: Dylan Cunha
- Trip: 7f 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 21%
- Odds (dec): 9.09 (from IP)
Analysis
Consistent placer; still AF at tissue.
Details
- J: Kieran Shoemark
- T: Ed Walker
- Trip: 7f 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 52%
- Odds (dec): 11.11 (from IP)
Analysis
Freshened; capable of outrunning price with AF tag.
Details
- J: Luke Morris
- T: Tom Clover
- Trip: 5f 42y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (dec): 4.35 (from IP)
Analysis
Consistent; AF value to keep the run going.
Details
- J: Stevie Donohoe
- T: John Ryan
- Trip: 5f 42y
- Trainer RTF%: 80%
- Odds (dec): 6.67 (from IP)
Analysis
Better back on a straight 5f; AF each-way angle.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Phil McEntee
- Trip: 5f 42y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (dec): 10.00 (from IP)
Analysis
C&D credentials; retains AF classification.
Details
- J: Benoit De La Sayette
- T: John & Thady Gosden
- Trip: 1m 3f 104y
- Trainer RTF%: 67%
- Odds (dec): 4.17 (from IP)
Analysis
Handicap debut; weighted to strike; AF value.
Details
- J: Tom Marquand
- T: William Haggas
- Trip: 1m 3f 104y
- Trainer RTF%: 78%
- Odds (dec): 4.76 (from IP)
Analysis
Strong, consistent filly; AF and a big player.
Details
- J: Rossa Ryan
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m 3f 104y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds (dec): 6.67 (from IP)
Analysis
Solid at this level; AF completes a strong trio.
Details
- J: Ashley Lewis
- T: Marcus Tregoning
- Trip: 1m 2f 23y
- Trainer RTF%: 44%
- Odds (dec): 7.69 (from IP)
Analysis
Reliable; AF value in a wide-open Cl5.
Details
- J: Neil Callan
- T: John Butler
- Trip: 1m 2f 23y
- Trainer RTF%: 56%
- Odds (dec): 9.09 (from IP)
Analysis
Arrives in form; AF and competitive off this mark.
Details
- J: Hector Crouch
- T: Ralph Beckett
- Trip: 1m 2f 23y
- Trainer RTF%: 46%
- Odds (dec): 14.29 (from IP)
Analysis
Lightly raced; AF angle for a place/strong run.
Details
- J: Alexandra Egan
- T: Charlie Clover
- Trip: 6f 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds (dec): 2.78 (from IP)
Analysis
Seeking hat-trick; massive AF edge — standout selection.
Details
- J: Billy Loughnane
- T: Joseph Parr
- Trip: 6f 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 33%
- Odds (dec): 11.11 (from IP)
Analysis
Main danger on current form; AF classification.
Details
- J: Taryn Langley
- T: Adrian Wintle
- Trip: 6f 3y
- Trainer RTF%: 18%
- Odds (dec): 12.50 (from IP)
Analysis
Consistent at the level; AF and included for value.
Analysis
In-form, ideal set-up, and a strong NP>IP differential. Our model’s top confidence pick.
Details
- Race: 5:30 — tigerbet.co.uk Bet Online Handicap (6f 3y)
- Trainer RTF%: 58%
- Odds (dec): 2.78 (from IP)