Before You Dive In – Read This First

Every race we cover goes deeper than just form. While the horse’s form is important, it’s essential that you also read the Analysis and Scenario sections of each post. This is where the real insights happen — where the AI pulls back the curtain and reveals when there’s more than meets the eye.

Race Name: Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

Race Distance: 1m3f188y

Racecourse: York

Time of Race: 14:10

First: Almosh’her

Age: 4

Weight: 8st 13lb

Form: 1-21

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Clifford Lee

Trainer: K R Burke

Trainer RTF% Form: 53%

RTF’s: 93

OR: 93

TS: 112

SecEff (0–1): 0.89

Probability: High

Second: Stressfree

Age: 5

Weight: 8st 13lb

Form: 237-43

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Daniel Tudhope

Trainer: David O’Meara

Trainer RTF% Form: 56%

RTF’s: 107

OR: 93

TS: 115

SecEff (0–1): 0.87

Probability: Moderate

Analysis: Almosh’her, a lightly raced 4-year-old, has shown significant promise with two wins from three starts. His recent victory at Kempton indicates a horse on the rise, and the switch to turf could unlock further potential. With a Top Speed (TS) rating of 112 and a sectional efficiency (SecEff) of 0.89, he profiles as a strong contender. Stressfree, with consistent performances and a TS of 115, offers solid place prospects. His experience and adaptability make him a reliable choice for the frame.

Scenario Analysis: Should the ground soften due to unexpected weather changes, horses with proven form on softer surfaces may gain an advantage. In such conditions, Stressfree’s versatility could see him challenge for top honors, while Almosh’her’s untested nature on softer ground introduces an element of uncertainty.

Race Name: Churchill Tyres Handicap

Race Distance: 6f

Racecourse: York

Time of Race: 14:42

First: Two Tribes

Age: 4

Weight: 8st 13lb

Form: 5476-3

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Ryan Moore

Trainer: Richard Spencer

Trainer RTF% Form: 70%

RTF’s: 90

OR: 90

TS: 115

SecEff (0–1): 0.88

Probability: High

Second: Holkham Bay

Age: 4

Weight: 9st 7lb

Form: 071-85

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Oisin Murphy

Trainer: William Knight

Trainer RTF% Form: 73%

RTF’s: 98

OR: 98

TS: 113

SecEff (0–1): 0.86

Probability: Moderate

Analysis: Two Tribes, with a solid TS of 115 and a SecEff of 0.88, stands out in this competitive field. His recent form suggests readiness to strike, and the booking of Ryan Moore adds confidence. Holkham Bay, while carrying more weight, has demonstrated capability with a TS of 113 and offers value for place considerations.

Scenario Analysis: A sudden downpour could alter the track conditions, favoring horses with proven soft ground form. In such a scenario, Holkham Bay’s adaptability might see him outperform expectations, while Two Tribes’ preference for firmer ground could be tested.

Race Name: 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes (Group 2)

Race Distance: 6f

Racecourse: York

Time of Race: 15:13

First: Inisherin

Age: 4

Weight: 9st 10lb

Form: 61150-

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Ryan Moore

Trainer: Kevin Ryan

Trainer RTF% Form: 61%

RTF’s: 103

OR: 116

TS: 124

SecEff (0–1): 0.90

Probability: Very High

Second: Elite Status

Age: 4

Weight: 9st 10lb

Form: /1180-

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Clifford Lee

Trainer: K R Burke

Trainer RTF% Form: 53%

RTF’s: 112

OR: 112

TS: 123

SecEff (0–1): 0.89

Probability: High

Analysis: Inisherin, with a TS of 124 and a SecEff of 0.90, is the standout in this Group 2 contest. His previous Group 1 success and the booking of Ryan Moore enhance his credentials. Elite Status, closely matched on ratings, offers a strong challenge and is a solid option for exacta bets.

Scenario Analysis: If the race develops into a tactical affair with a slow early pace, Elite Status’s turn of foot could prove decisive. Conversely, a fast-run race would play to Inisherin’s strengths, allowing him to utilize his cruising speed effectively.

Race Name: Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies)

Race Distance: 1m2f56y

Racecourse: York

Time of Race: 15:45

First: Whirl

Age: 3

Weight: 9st 2lb

Form: 4511-6

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Ryan Moore

Trainer: A P O’Brien

Trainer RTF% Form: 78%

RTF’s: 99

OR: 99

TS: 110

SecEff (0–1): 0.88

Probability: Very High

Second: Smoken

Age: 3

Weight: 9st 2lb

Form: 11-

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Rossa Ryan

Trainer: Ralph Beckett

Trainer RTF% Form: 80%

RTF’s: 95

OR: 95

TS: 111

SecEff (0–1): 0.87

Probability: High

Analysis: Whirl, with a TS of 110 and a SecEff of 0.88, is a filly on the rise. Her previous victories suggest she has the class to take this Group 3 event. Smoken, unbeaten in two starts, presents a formidable challenge and is expected to be in the mix.

Scenario Analysis: Should the pace be strong from the outset, Whirl’s stamina will be tested, potentially bringing Smoken’s turn of foot into play. A moderate pace would favor Whirl’s tactical speed and positioning.

Race Name: Conundrum HR Consulting Handicap

Race Distance: 7f

Racecourse: York

Time of Race: 16:18

First: Gallant

Age: 3

Weight: 8st 13lb

Form: 51-44

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Oisin Murphy

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Trainer RTF% Form: 61%

RTF’s: 107

OR: 107

TS: 107

SecEff (0–1): 0.89

Probability: High

Second: Rare Change

Age: 3

Weight: 8st 9lb

Form: 3463-1

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Hector Crouch

Trainer: Richard Hughes

Trainer RTF% Form: 55%

RTF’s: 90

OR: 105

TS: 105

SecEff (0–1): 0.88

Probability: Moderate

Analysis: Gallant’s consistent form and a TS of 107 make him a strong contender in this handicap. Rare Change, with a recent win and a TS of 105, is on the up and could challenge for top honors.

Scenario Analysis: A fast early pace could set the race up for closers like Rare Change. Conversely, a steady pace would benefit Gallant’s tactical speed and positioning.

Race Name: British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Colts & Geldings) (IRE Incentive Race)

Race Distance: 5f

Racecourse: York

Time of Race: 16:55

First: Under The Radar

Age: 2

Weight: 9st 7lb

Form: 41

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: David Allan

Trainer: Tim Easterby

Trainer RTF% Form: 63%

RTF’s: 81

OR: –

TS: 81

SecEff (0–1): 0.86

Probability: High

Second: Frio

Age: 2

Weight: 9st 2lb

Form: 3

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Jason Hart

Trainer: John & Sean Quinn

Trainer RTF% Form: 57%

RTF’s: 66

OR: –

TS: 89

SecEff (0–1): 0.85

Probability: Moderate

Analysis: Under The Radar’s recent win suggests he is progressing well and could take this novice event. Frio, with a solid debut run, is expected to improve and challenge for the places.

Scenario Analysis: If the race develops into a sprint from the start, Under The Radar’s experience could be decisive. A more tactical affair might allow Frio to utilize his turn of foot.

Race Name: Stuey Weston & Friends Getting Out Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

Race Distance: 1m3f188y

Racecourse: York

Time of Race: 17:25

First: Don Simon

Age: 4

Weight: 9st 4lb

Form: 643-22

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Ryan Moore

Trainer: Ed Dunlop

Trainer RTF% Form: 28%

RTF’s: 102

OR: 102

TS: 110

SecEff (0–1): 0.88

Probability: High

Second: Capla Lazarus

Age: 4

Weight: 9st 0lb

Form: 242-1

Going: Good to Firm

Jockey: Billy Garritty

Trainer: Michael & David Easterby

Trainer RTF% Form: 42%

RTF’s: 97

OR: 97

TS: 106

SecEff (0–1): 0.87

Probability: Moderate

Analysis: Don Simon stands out with consecutive runner-up finishes that suggest a win is imminent. He is highly consistent with a Top Speed rating of 110 and shows strong balance between cruising speed and finish. With Ryan Moore booked, confidence is elevated further. Capla Lazarus, a last-time-out winner, is lightly raced and continues to progress. He stays the trip well and could be dangerous if allowed to dictate. Both are favoured by the going, and their sectionals suggest a strong final furlong finish is expected.

Scenario Analysis: Should the early pace prove too strong for the closers, Capla Lazarus may be able to capitalize from a handy position. If it becomes a test of stamina late on, Don Simon’s durability and consistency under pressure give him the edge.

Nap of the Meeting:

Out of my analysis for York, this is the selection I am most confident about.

Horse Name: Inisherin

Age: 4

Weight: 9st 10lb

Form: 61150- (Seasonal reappearance shows potential)

OR: 116

TS: 124

SecEff (0–1): 0.90

RTF’s: 103

Confidence Factors: Highest Top Speed of the day, proven Group-level performance, optimal trainer/jockey combination, favourable draw, and excels on good-to-firm going.

Race Conditions: The 6f trip is ideal; York’s fast ground suits his powerful cruising speed. A relatively small field allows him to dictate or sit handy without traffic issues.

In summary: Inisherin is my Nap of the Meeting — the run-that-wins scenario aligns strongest with the data, making this the day’s standout bet.

Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – York – 14/05/25

Race Predictions (Top 2 per Race)

2:10 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap

• Almosh’her (Probability: 82%)
• Marhaba The Champ (Probability: 78%) [Flagged: <80%]

2:42 – Churchill Tyres Handicap

• Bergerac (Probability: 80%)
• Two Tribes (Probability: 76%) [Flagged: <80%]

3:13 – 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes (Group 2)

• Inisherin (Probability: 84%)
• Elite Status (Probability: 79%) [Flagged: <80%]

3:45 – Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3)

• Whirl (Probability: 85%)
• Ecstatic (Probability: 77%) [Flagged: <80%]

Lucky 15 Selections (Prioritizing ≥80%)

1. Almosh’her (2:10, York, 82%)
2. Bergerac (2:42, York, 80%)
3. Inisherin (3:13, York, 84%)
4. Whirl (3:45, York, 85%)

Lucky 15 Bets Breakdown

Singles

1. Almosh’her (2:10, York)
2. Bergerac (2:42, York)
3. Inisherin (3:13, York)
4. Whirl (3:45, York)

Doubles

1. Almosh’her + Bergerac
2. Almosh’her + Inisherin
3. Almosh’her + Whirl
4. Bergerac + Inisherin
5. Bergerac + Whirl
6. Inisherin + Whirl

Trebles

1. Almosh’her + Bergerac + Inisherin
2. Almosh’her + Bergerac + Whirl
3. Almosh’her + Inisherin + Whirl
4. Bergerac + Inisherin + Whirl

Four-Fold Accumulator

• Almosh’her + Bergerac + Inisherin + Whirl

Key Insights

• Best Value Pick: Bergerac (80%) –
• Highest Probability: Whirl (85%) –
• Alternative if Needed: Elite Status (79%) –