How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – York
#9 Big Leader (Form: 111)
Unbeaten profile, SecEff meets criteria, Above Fair assessment, progressing into Listed-level form, strong trainer current form. This is my Nap of the Meeting — the “run-that-wins” scenario aligns strongest with the model. Back with confidence.
Sky Bet Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
#1 Mount Atlas (Form: 2-4551)
The Ascot winner is trending upward, NP > IP and meets SecEff criteria; topweight can follow up.
#2 Naqeeb (Form: -65382)
Consistent, better with a strong pace at this trip; solid each-way profile.
#4 Insanity (Form: 0-6103)
Lightly raced at the distance and still improving; market underrates his chance.
Analysis
Mount Atlas the most likely winner; Naqeeb and Insanity rate value podium plays.
Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2)
#1 Trawlerman (Form: 23-511)
Clear standard bearer with strong SecEff; banker credentials.
#5 Sweet William (Form: 12-343)
Reliable stayer who finishes strongly; main danger.
#3 Al Qareem (Form: -31211)
Game and consistent; tactical scenarios bring him right into it.
Analysis
Trawlerman sets a high bar; Sweet William and Al Qareem the likeliest to chase him home.
Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)
#2 Do Or Do Not (Form: 02223)
Strong and consistent figures at the level; highest confidence of the eight.
#6 Reciprocated (Form: 116)
Speed holds up on sectionals; very live for a place and more.
#5 Lifeplan (Form: 1)
Raw but talented; scope to rate higher with clean break.
Analysis
Do Or Do Not edges it on figures; Reciprocated the danger; Lifeplan progressive.
Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)
#9 Arizona Blaze (Form: 131621)
Powerful finisher ideally suited to 5f; ticks win-bet rules.
#10 Asfoora (Form: 4-1757)
Seasoned sprinter with the sectionals to land a Group 1 on the right day.
#15 Sayidah Dariyan (Form: 6-1341)
On an upward curve; profile screams “big run” from a handy draw.
Analysis
Arizona Blaze the nap within the sprint; Asfoora and Sayidah Dariyan right behind.
Assured Data Protection EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
#11 Cape Flora (Form: 7-9451)
Breakthrough win screams “more to come”; best value angle in a deep heat.
#7 Wonder Star (Form: 6-182)
Strong finisher with the right pace map; clear danger.
#5 Zgharta (Form: 3-2175)
Profile a touch patchy but handicapped to contend; podium threat.
Analysis
Cape Flora the win play; Wonder Star and Zgharta for the frame.
British Stallion Studs EBF Convivial Maiden Stakes
#9 Naval Light (Form: 282)
Best set of form lines; fully deserving of favouritism.
#5 Frescobaldi (Form: 52)
Second run was full of promise; major player now.
#7 Inishbeg (Debut)
Interesting newcomer with the right profile to outrun odds.
Analysis
Naval Light holds the call; Frescobaldi is the obvious danger; Inishbeg lively debutant.
Sky Bet Mile Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
#9 Big Leader (Form: 111)
Unbeaten and progressive; strongest profile for the win.
#4 Montpellier (Form: 1124)
Consistent, well-drawn, and projects a podium run.
#5 Yah Mo Be There (Form: 1-5855)
Numbers ahead of odds imply underestimation; strong E/W angle.
Analysis
Big Leader the standout; Montpellier rock-solid; Yah Mo Be There overpriced for places.
Probability Explanation
Implied Probability represents the chance of winning based solely on bookmaker odds.
Normalized Probability adjusts this figure so all selections in a race total 100%, removing the bookmaker’s margin.
Ideally you want the Probability (Normalized) to be Higher than the Implied Probability