How We Stay Ahead — The Bet Smart & Win Edge
At Bet Smart & Win, our custom AI models don’t just pick horses — they break down each Bookmaker’s Overround to uncover the True Fair Market Value for every race.
Our ideal criteria will be an Overround of between 100% & 115%, Normalized Probability of 27% to 34%, Implied Probability above 20%, but below the Normalized Probability, 8 to 12 runners and a Value of Fair or Above Fair (we aim for AF). Our preferred Classes are 1, 3, 4, 5.
Nap of the Meeting – York 23/08/25
#9 Pocklington (Form: 500-25)
Unlucky over C&D last time and still well treated. Trainer metrics hot; NP exceeds IP, confirming value.
1:50 York – Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3)
#4 King’s Gambit (Form: 37-463)
Group-level figures and tactical speed for the Knavesmire; NP>IP confirms value.
#5 Skukuza (Form: -56119)
Rider upgrade and pace setup to suit a late surge; market underestimates.
#2 Bullet Point (Form: 1-1221)
Progressive and likely pace angle; retains upside at current quotes.
Analysis
King’s Gambit preferred on class and track suitability with value confirmed by NP>IP.
2:25 York – Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage)
#3 Tarriance (Form: 3121)
Sandown form stacks up; efficient run style for trip and ground.
#8 Golden Handshake (Form: 9211)
Improving quickly; well set to travel and finish strongly.
#4 Pole Star (Form: 421611)
Likeable profile and stamina assured; strong place chance.
Analysis
Tarriance is the win play with Golden Handshake a robust E/W alternative.
3:00 York – Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 1)
#7 Rosallion (Form: 11-322)
Class edge at 7f; ratings and run-style match the track’s demands.
#4 Never So Brave (Form: 20-211)
Rapid improver with a handy draw; main danger.
#6 Quinault (Form: -37014)
York-proven C&D; strong place angle in a deep Group 1.
Analysis
Rosallion brings the highest ceiling; Never So Brave the saver with Quinault for place value.
3:35 York – Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage)
#6 Ethical Diamond (Form: 1/24-1)
Lightly raced, Ascot form strong; Buick a notable booking in a cavalry charge.
#17 Ascending (Form: 221-11)
Arrives thriving; profile screams stamina and strong finishing kick.
#14 Siege Of Troy (Form: 7-4443)
Consistent Irish handicapper; well-treated enough to get competitive late.
Analysis
Ethical Diamond edges a wide-open Ebor on upside and booking; Ascending and Siege Of Troy are live place players.
4:10 York – Sky Bet Constantine Handicap (Heritage)
#9 Pocklington (Form: 500-25)
Well handicapped and unlucky C&D run; ideal set-up to atone.
#14 Jubilee Walk (Form: 6-0032)
Trending correctly and drawn to get cover before a late challenge.
#1 Two Tribes (Form: 440311)
Improving sprinter with a top pilot; solid place credentials.
Analysis
Pocklington the confident selection; Jubilee Walk and Two Tribes appeal for places.
4:45 York – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed)
#8 Revival Power (Form: 102)
Serious speed on fast ground; visuals and figures align.
#4 Military Code (Form: 11027)
Classy yard/jockey; strong late kick for the last 100 yards.
#5 Rydale Frosty (Form: 4214)
Reliable juvenile with scope; fair value to fill minors.
Analysis
Revival Power preferred on raw speed; Military Code the danger and Rydale Frosty completes the three.
5:20 York – Sky Bet Steve Birch Finale Handicap
#6 Marhaba Ghaiyyath (Form: 172122)
Consistent in strong handicaps; rise may not halt momentum given the race setup.
#1 Westridge (Form: -52121)
Top jockey booked and arrives in form; should be right there at the finish.
#11 Classic Encounter (Form: 123146)
Capable handicapper; fair value to run into the places if the leaders overdo it.
Analysis
Marhaba Ghaiyyath shades a competitive finale, with Westridge and Classic Encounter well suited to the scenario.
Notes
Top Jockey = Included in our curated list of leading riders.
Overround colour guide: 100–115% 116–117% 118%+ ≤99%
Implied Probability (IP) derives from bookmaker prices; Normalized Probability (NP) re-scales the book to 100% (removing margin). Ideally, NP > IP to confirm value.
Value Key: AF Above Fair F Fair BF Below Fair